Florida orange production suffers 30% drop after hurricanes and growing trade wars

ORLANDO, Fla. – Orange juice, once a staple in American kitchens and known for its vitamin C, has seen a dramatic decline in popularity, which comes at a tumultuous time for the industry facing headwinds from trade wars, climate change and citrus greening.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that Florida’s orange crop will reach levels not seen since before World War II, with just over 11.5 million boxes expected to be produced during the 2024-2025 growing cycle – a more than 30% decline from the previous season. 

While the figure may seem alarming, some citrus prices at grocery stores have begun to drop, indicating that shifts in consumer behavior and other market forces may be easing the pressure on the industry to maintain performance levels.

The news about consumption is not a surprise, as previous studies, including research published in Agribusiness, found that consumption has plummeted more than 50% since 2000. 

This decline in demand is driven by several factors, including changing tastes, health concerns and rising prices. 

What’s driving production down?

In addition to shifting consumer tastes, the orange juice industry has been battered by external forces such as growing trade wars and the disastrous effects of hurricanes impacting the Sunshine State.

Hurricanes Irma, Ian and Milton over the last decade have caused a substantial amount of crop damage, with estimated losses reaching into the billions of dollars.

On top of this, growers have been struggling with citrus greening, a bacterial disease for which no known cure exists. 

According to experts from the University of Florida, once a tree becomes infected, its nutrient flow slows, which eventually impairs its ability to produce fruit.

Trees producing grapefruits, lemons, tangerines, tangelos and other fruits are also susceptible to the disease. 

The continued spread of citrus greening has left growers with few options other than to destroy sections of trees to combat the disease, placing further strain on the industry.

Iconic OJ brand faces challenges

These challenges have ultimately led to financial difficulties, including one major producer, Tropicana.

According to a quarterly report from a minority owner, the iconic juice brand has seen its value depreciate in the evolving market.

Tropicana, originally founded in Bradenton, Florida, in 1947, was “the first to bring fresh juice to the masses.” However, recent struggles may create opportunities for citrus growers in other regions, such as California, as well as international markets in Brazil and Spain.

Who else is growing oranges?

According to data from the USDA, Brazil is the world’s largest producer of citrus, followed by China, Europe and Mexico.

Similarly to Florida, growers in South America report having faced struggles, but additional rainfall and improving flower quality may be the beginning of a boost in production.

“Dry weather has reduced fruit production for five consecutive seasons in the citrus belt, which is composed of the northwest of São Paulo and the western part of Minas Gerais, known as ‘Triângulo Mineiro,’” an agricultural report on Brazil’s growers stated. “The citrus belt is in need of further irrigation, according to Post contacts. Since October 2024, rains have been more regular, improving flowering. Orange trees are perennial plants that fluctuate production between harvests. In other words, a lower harvest is typically followed by a better one and vice versa. This leads Post to expect a production recovery in MY 2024/25.”