Tornado watch issued for 3 states as multiday severe weather, flooding threats begin to unfold

Yet again, another round of severe weather is set to threaten the central U.S. with damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes starting late Tuesday and continuing through Thursday.

Simultaneously, a significant risk of extreme flash flooding is growing for the Mississippi and Ohio valleys this week, where some areas could see nearly a foot of rain.

The FOX Forecast Center said a strong storm system is strengthening over the western U.S., which will send a cold front and warm front into the central Plains and Midwest.

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop by Tuesday evening from Texas to Illinois.

Where severe weather is happening now

Weather alerts have been issued in the central U.S. as forecasters watch for storms to develop through Tuesday evening.

Here is a look at the latest radar, warnings and watches.

Tuesday’s forecast includes tornadoes, wind, hail

While storms have struggled to form during the day Tuesday due to a strong “cap” – an atmospheric lid that inhibits thunderstorm development – a few isolated storms could develop along the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas, bringing a low chance for hail or strong wind gusts.

The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) expanded Tuesday’s Level 3 out of 5 risk zone to include the Kansas City metro area and adjacent portions of western Missouri, central and eastern Kansas and central Oklahoma.

After sunset, the severe weather threat will increase as storms form along and north of a warm front lifting across Kansas and Missouri.

While there is some uncertainty about storm coverage farther south along the cold front, any storms that develop could bring very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, some of which could be strong (EF-2 or higher).

Multiday severe weather threat peaks Wednesday, lingers into Thursday

A significant severe weather threat is anticipated Wednesday, stretching from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley southwestward through the mid-South and southern Plains, the FOX Forecast Center said.

Storms are likely to be ongoing or developing early in the day from Wisconsin to Oklahoma and Texas.

As a strong storm system moves across the northern Plains and a cold front pushes eastward, warm, humid air will create a favorable environment for severe thunderstorms.

The SPC upgraded Wednesday’s severe weather threat to a Level 4 out of 5 risk zone to include over 4.4 million people in major Tennessee cities such as Memphis, Clarksville and Jackson, as well as Evansville, Indiana, and Jonesboro, Arkansas.

This setup may favor isolated supercell thunderstorms, increasing the potential for very large hail, especially farther south, as well as widespread damaging winds and a significant risk of tornadoes, some of which could be EF-2 or stronger, the FOX Forecast Center said.

Storms will continue through the evening and overnight, moving eastward across the Midwest and lower Mississippi Valley.

On Thursday, the cold front will slow and stall from the Mississippi and Ohio valleys into the southern Plains.

Even as the main storm system moves into Canada, daytime heating and high humidity will fuel another round of severe storms, with damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes possible, the FOX Forecast Center noted.

Rainfall totals could approach a foot across parts of Tennessee, Kentucky

The FOX Forecast Center is also monitoring a growing threat of extensive flash flooding in the Mississippi and Ohio valleys this week, coinciding with the severe weather. 

Repeated storms moving over the same areas – known as training – are expected, with computer forecast models indicating 24-hour totals exceeding 5-8 inches in some spots, particularly from Arkansas into western Kentucky, on top of previous days’ rainfall.

While 3-5 inches of rain could fall from Wednesday into Thursday, prompting early flash flood alerts from northeastern Texas to Ohio, the FOX Forecast Center warned that the primary period of concern will linger into the weekend.

By the end of the week, rainfall totals could approach a foot, creating a potentially dangerous situation given the region’s already-saturated conditions.

A level 3 out of 4 flash flood risk is currently in place for Wednesday. 

By Thursday, the expected prolonged heavy rain will continue with a level 4 flash flood threat, the highest threat level, for parts of western Tennessee and Kentucky.

The level 3 risk zone shifts slightly to the west on Friday before shifting east again by Saturday.

The unsettled pattern continues through the weekend, with the potential for heavy rain and severe storms in parts of the Mississippi and Ohio valleys. 

Winter weather threat returns to areas impacted by recent ice storm

The FOX Forecast Center said there is a decent chance of seeing 4-plus inches of snow in parts of the Dakotas, northern Minnesota and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan through Wednesday.

In addition, wind gusts are expected to range from 30-40 mph, which could create near-blizzard conditions with blowing snow, especially in areas with heavy snowfall.

The winter weather could impact the same region hit hard by a destructive winter storm that brought crippling ice accretions this past weekend.