Bitcoin Sets Record Monthly Close Above $115k as Analyst Tips 50% Rally

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin hit a record monthly close at $115,800 on July 31.

• Analysts see price dropping below $115,000 as a bullish retest.

• August may see strong BTC gains, as post-halving years historically see 14%-65% returns.

Bitcoin (BTC) has made history after BTC/USD achieved its highest monthly close on Thursday.

Bitcoin completes best month ever

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms that Bitcoin closed its latest monthly July candle at $115,800 on Coinbase.

The move came despite a last-minute BTC price drop due to macroeconomic volatility and gave bulls their first close above the $115,000 mark.

Related: Bitcoin fills July CME gap ‘to the dollar’ amid $104K BTC price target

Risk assets tumbled during the Wall Street trading session on Thursday after US President Donald Trump formalized an array of new tariffs and trade deals, including hiking tariffs on Canada from 25% to 35%. 

The market says the trade war has lost all credibility:

President Trump just seemingly just randomly decided to raise tariffs on Canada from 25% to 35%.

On top of this, he imposed “reciprocal tariffs” on Vietnam, Switzerland, South Africa, Taiwan, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia,…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 1, 2025

US enquiries ended the day down, with the S&P 500 extending its four-day decline to close the day on Thursday at 6,339. 

The crypto market Fear & Greed Index dropped by 10 points but remained in the “greed” zone at 65,  as per data from the Fear & Greed meter. 

Reacting, however, market analysts believe Bitcoin’s uptrend remains intact.

Popular analyst Mags said that Thursday’s drop to $115,000 was a bullish retest of an inverse head-and-shoulders’ neckline before BTC continues its uptrend.

The measured target of this pattern on the weekly chart is $172,000, or a 50% increase from the current price.

“It’s just a matter of time before Bitcoin price goes vertical,” Mags said in a Thursday post on X.

Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe was equally bullish on the longer-term outlook.

The markets have started correcting, “which means that it’s time to accumulate your next positions for the next run,” van de Poppe said in a Friday X post, adding:

“ Perhaps August is a month of stabilization, and we’ll go back up later in the month for Altcoins and Bitcoin.”

As Cointelegraph reported, despite the correction, BTC remains within the $115,000-$121,000 range, with multiple data points suggesting a larger breakout is still in play.

BTC price to see “massive move” in August?

BTC/USD thus ended July up 8.13%, in line with historical price behavior, per data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.

August, however, is well known as being traditionally one of Bitcoin’s worst-performing months, with average gains of 1.61%. A repeat would see BTC price end the month at around $117,600.

However, post-halving Augusts are different, and every previous one saw major upside, with 30%, 65% and 14% gains in 2013, 2017 and 2021, respectively.

“Look at the Bitcoin monthly returns,” said analyst Alpha Finder in a July 28 X post, adding:

“In 2017 and 2021, $BTC did massive returns in the month of August.”

Another X user, Crypto B, agreed that post-halving years produce strong August price performance, saying:

“If history repeats itself, get ready for a strong August.” 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.