Gold prices near all-time highs amid US Fed rate cut expectations

Gold prices in India remained firm on Thursday (September 11), mirroring global trends as the precious metal hovered close to all-time highs on expectations of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week.

In India, 24-karat gold traded at ₹11,052 per gram (₹1.10 lakh per 10 grams), while 22-karat gold was priced at ₹10,131 per gram (₹1.01 lakh per 10 grams), according to Goodreturns. The price of 18-karat gold stood at ₹8,289 per gram (₹82,890 per 10 grams).

Globally, spot gold held at $3,636.59 per ounce as of 0233 GMT, just below Tuesday’s (September 9’s) all-time high of $3,673.95 an ounce.

US gold futures for December delivery slipped 0.1% to $3,676.40 an ounce.

Market sentiment remains anchored by softer US economic data. Producer prices unexpectedly fell in August, reinforcing the view that the Fed could ease policy sooner and more aggressively.

A Reuters poll forecasts the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise 0.3% month-on-month in August, with annual inflation expected at 2.9%. Investors are closely watching the data, due later in the day, along with weekly jobless claims numbers.

“Weak US macro data has been fueling gold’s recent climb; both the massive revisions to the labor data as well as the positive surprise in the PPI readings are leading to expectations that the Fed will lower rates at a much faster clip than previously expected,” said Edward Meir, analyst at Marex.

Analysts widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting next week, with markets also assigning a smaller probability of a deeper 50 basis point cut.

Lower rates generally support gold, which yields no interest, by reducing the opportunity cost of holding the asset.

In India, industry experts note that supply-demand fundamentals remain supportive.

“24-karat gold remains resilient, indicative of steadfast demand amid growing geopolitical and economic concerns,” said Aksha Kamboj, Vice President, India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA).

While global jewellery demand has softened, investment demand remains robust. A note by Axis MF Research highlighted that global gold jewellery demand fell 14% year-on-year in Q2 2025, touching near-pandemic lows, even as gold-backed ETFs saw net inflows of over 400 tonnes in the first half of 2025.

Central banks also added 166 tonnes to reserves during the same period.

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With investors turning to safe-haven assets, analysts expect intermittent volatility but see the overall outlook for gold as supported by weaker US data, Fed policy expectations, and continued central bank buying.

–With Reuters inputs