Bitcoin (BTC) starts the new week with a bump as traders brace for more macro volatility.
Key points:
- Bitcoin gets knocked back toward $62,000, but a trader is already eyeing the end of the bear market by September.
- A new BTC price “death cross” forms the latest signal that the bear market may have just months left to run.
- The US-Iran war is back as the Strait of Hormuz closes to oil traffic, prompting risk-asset headwinds.
- US CPI and PPI data is due out, while Fed chair Kevin Warsh will outline future policy to lawmakers.
- A major distribution event involving midsize Bitcoin hodlers shows fractured sentiment across investor cohorts.
Bitcoin bear-market bottom due “around September or October”
Bitcoin continues to circle its lowest levels since Q3 2024, but one theory is already calling for the return of the bull market as soon as September.
In an X post on Monday, trader Ryker called the entire four-year cycle of bull and bear markets into question.
“I disagree with this chart,” they wrote alongside a comparison of previous market phases for BTC/USD stretching back to 2013.
Ryker argued that since consensus sees the 2026 bear-market bottom as still to come, market makers will frontrun sentiment and initiate a long-term rebound in advance, leaving as many traders off-side as possible.
“Most people believe that the next Bitcoin bull cycle will begin in 2027. However, market makers know exactly what the crowd is thinking,” they continued.
“I predict that Bitcoin will start surging around September or October of this year, and the crowd will miss the buy opportunity. You shouldn’t trust this chart.”
BTC/USD one-week chart comparison. Source: Ryker/X
The idea comes as multiple BTC price indicators begin to flash reversal signals for the first time since the end of the last bear market in late 2022.
As Cointelegraph reported, however, history suggests that the bear market is simply too young to reverse before the end of the year, with current progress at around 70%.
Trader confirms classic BTC price bear-market “death cross”
Bitcoin saw sell-side pressure immediately after the weekly close, dropping to local lows near $62,500, per data from TradingView.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
This reinforced the area around $64,000 as short-term resistance, with multiple attempts to break higher all ending in failure last week.
“Crypto choppy, so are stocks,” trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in his latest analysis on X.
“Bitcoin remains rangebound between this ~$61K-$65K region and is right in the middle here.”
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
Fellow trader Lennaert Snyder saw little chance of even a rematch with range highs, putting $63,600 as the next entry point for a BTC short position.
“Orderflow also confirms spot and perps are selling and funding rates are still quite high, so some downward pressure would be healthy,” he commented on Monday about exchange order-book data.
Snyder described BTC/USD dropping to fresh lows under $57,800 as the “most healthy scenario.”
BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: Lennaert Snyder/X
A more optimistic take came from trader Jelle, who maintained hope of a near-term rebound to $70,000.
On longer time frames, Jelle noted the recent “death cross” on the weekly chart potentially forming a reliable foundation for sustained upside.
This involves the 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages (SMAs), and with the last death cross coming in September 2022, just months before the last bear-market bottom.
“In the past, by the time this signal flashed, Bitcoin’s bear market was nearly ending. More and more signs confirming my belief that accumulation season is back,” Jelle told X followers.
BTC/USD one-week chart with 50, 100SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Hormuz closure rocks oil, stocks in crypto headwind
The US-Iran war is already back as a major macro volatility driver this week.
Over the weekend, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz — a key global oil route — closed until further notice.
This followed a series of escalatory events that broke the fragile ceasefire agreement previously in effect, and markets reacted in kind.
US WTI crude oil returned to $75 per barrel on Monday, up nearly 12% versus its July lows.
CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Reacting, Nic Puckrin, CEO and cofounder of crypto education platform Coin Bureau, flagged other signs of stress as a result of the resurgent conflict.
“US 2yr T-bill yields just shot above 2.35% – the highest level in 16 months!” he wrote in a post on X.
“The Iran situation is pushing up oil prices & inflation expectations. It’s saying: Interest rates are going to be higher for longer.”
US two-year Treasury yield chart. Source: Nic Puckrin/X
Puckrin referred to two-year US Treasury note yields and their potential impact on financial policy, with higher interest rates traditionally being a headwind for crypto and risk assets.
While US stock futures saw a cautious start to the week, the frequency of negative Iran headlines appeared to show in their comparatively muted reaction to the oil-supply threat. As such, some market participants brushed off the potential for a deeper market retracement based solely on Middle-East cues.
“This correction has, in my opinion, little to do with everything in the Middle East,” crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe argued.
Van de Poppe instead put the focus on Japanese bond markets as the yen circled multidecade lows versus the US dollar.
“It has a lot more to do with the Japanese Yield jumping again,” he continued.
“I expect to see a breakdown in Yield over the next 1-2 weeks, which would automatically lead to a positive breakout in Bitcoin.”
BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X
Fed’s Warsh to testify with CPI, PPI data due
Against the background of Iran instability, US markets will also need to surf key macro data releases in the coming days.
Chief among these are the June prints of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). Both mark the final releases before the Federal Reserve meets to decide on interest-rate changes at the end of the month.
As Cointelegraph reported, the Iran knock-on effect has been reflected in US inflation reports for several months, making any surprise readings in CPI or PPI a key potential risk-asset volatility catalyst.
US CPI 12-month % change. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
“We have a highly eventful week ahead of us,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized to X followers.
Almost immediately after CPI on Tuesday, new Fed chair Kevin Warsh will present a semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee.
Warsh has walked a tightrope since taking over in May, juggling rising inflation with pressure from US president Donald Trump to cut rates. At his first interest-rate meeting, however, he remained on the hawkish side, avoiding dropping clear hints that policy could be relaxed.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets currently see rates staying the same until September, when majority consensus calls for a 0.25% hike.
Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group
In analysis published late last week, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company described rates being caught in a “tug-of-war,” while pointing instead to US 30-year Treasury yields as a source of friction going forward.
“A breakout in long-term rates may present obstacles for the rally, but the S&P 500 is nearing completion of a short-term bullish chart pattern,” it warned.
This week also sees around 10% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings.
S&P 500 chart data. Source: Mosaic Asset Company
Midsize BTC hodler selling hits multimonth highs
New insights into Bitcoin hodler selling adds to the case for a BTC price rebound in July.
Related: Bitcoin whales sent BTC price to $64K as Coinbase Premium broke key level: CryptoQuant
Published by onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant on Monday, data covering addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC shows a major new distribution event.
“Bitcoin wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC recorded net distribution of about 67,000 BTC on July 13, the cohort’s strongest selling activity since February 19, when distribution reached roughly 47,000 BTC,” contributor Amr Taha wrote in a blog post.
Over the past three months, the cohort’s activity has been in a state of flux, with late April conversely seeing conspicuous accumulation.
Taha, however, notes that these 100-1,000 BTC entities tend to reduce exposure before bullish BTC price reversals.
“Historically, extreme accumulation by this cohort appeared near local Bitcoin price highs in January and April 2026, while the strong distribution recorded after February 19 was followed by a price rebound,” he continued.
“The current signal does not confirm a market bottom, but it places Bitcoin near another historically significant shift in mid-sized investor behavior.”
Bitcoin exchange inflow data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant data also shows that inflows to both Binance and Coinbase Prime actually cooled in mid-July.
Last week, Cointelegraph reported on profit-taking by short-term holders as BTC/USD rose to $64,000 — something that analysis likewise described as a feature “characteristic of a bull market.”
Read the full article here
