Bellwether Pennsylvania counties move back to Donald Trump: poll

A pair of key counties in the Keystone State look to be headed to Donald Trump’s column in November, and that may mean the presidency itself there too.

That’s the takeaway from fresh polling of 420 likely voters in 2 bellwethers, Erie and Northampton counties, Sept. 30 and Oct. 1.

These counties, which contain the city of Erie in the former case and Easton in the latter, have been predictive in past election cycles.

They backed Barack Obama twice, threw in with Donald Trump in 2016 and jumped to Joe Biden in 2020. Now they may be turning away from Kamala Harris and returning to the GOP fold.

As pollster Cygnal notes, these counties “favor Donald Trump by a point (49 – 48) with less than five weeks until Election Day and voting already underway.” The former president has opportunities to “grow his lead” as voters continue to make their choices known between now and Nov. 5.

Trump is up double digits when it comes to comparing his job performance to the work done by his White House successors: Half say the former president did a better job, while just 39% back the Biden-Harris record.

And despite the mainstream media protecting the vice president from the level of criticism Trump routinely gets, these voters aren’t fooled. 

Harris is deeper underwater than Trump in approval ratings, a full 8 points down while Trump is 4 points in the hole. And among men under the age of 55 — a significant cohort — Trump is a staggering 60 points up on the veep (+36 in approval compared to -24 for the California Democrat).

One problem for the veep, which Cygnal notes, is gaffe-prone Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who might be friendly with “school shooters” but is not regarded as a pal in Pennsylvania bellwether counties. 

“Recent buyer’s remorse expressed by Democrats over not picking Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate are validated by the fact that a Harris-Shapiro ticket would be ahead +1 in these predictive counties (48 – 47). This is driven by a 10-point net shift in Harris’ favor among swing voters under a Harris-Shapiro vs Trump-Vance matchup. With all eyes on Pennsylvania, this decision by Harris could very well cost her the presidency,” Cygnal concludes. 

Shapiro is +14 in favorability, 12 points above Walz among all voters. 

The working class is particularly sour on the Democratic ticket. Trump leads with union households, 57% to 41%, and is up by 13 points among voters with five-figure salaries. Harris leads, however, with those making $100,000 or more per year.