Betting stats, modeling strategy at The Renaissance Club

J.T. Poston produced a wire-to-wire victory at the John Deere Classic, sealing a spot in the Open Championship.

This week, the golf schedule has two events — the Barbasol Championship at Keene Trace Golf Club and the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club — occupying spots on the calendar.

Given it features a significantly stronger field, our focus will be on the Scottish Open, widely considered a good tune-up event for the Open Championship. In Scotland, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm (+1100) arrive as consensus co-favorites while Justin Thomas (+1200) follows closely on the odds board. Rounding out the top five on the odds board are U.S. Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick and Travelers Championship winner Xander Schauffele (+1800).

But, before we dive into our bets, we begin as always with a statistical modeling strategy for the event. So, without further ado, let’s dive into the key stats.

Scottish Open betting stats and projections

Key Stat #1 – Driving Distance (12 percent emphasis)

Like most links-style setups, the fairways at The Renaissance Club are quite wide. Thus, accuracy is not as important compared to other weeks.

As a result, players who bomb the ball off the tee will have a significant advantage, especially considering there are four par 5’s at this track in addition to a drivable par-4.

Plus, there’s a much stronger correlation with finishing position for driving distance than accuracy. According to datagolf.com, there’s an 80 percent finishing position correlation with the former while the latter features only a 50 percent correlation. It’s also worth noting that last year’s Scottish Open winner — Min Woo Lee — ranks second in the field in this category.

Here are the top-five players in driving distance over their last 12 rounds:

1. Jon Rahm (+1100)
2. Min Woo Lee (+12000)
3. Dean Burmester (+19000)
4. Callum Tarren (+30000)
5. Wyndham Clark (+28000)

Key Stats #2 & #3 – Strokes-Gained: Approach (20 percent emphasis), GIRs Gained (10 percent emphasis)

Correlated Stat – Strokes-Gained: Around the Green (7 percent emphasis)

Whereas hitting the fairway at The Renaissance Club (should) prove relatively easy, hitting the green will provide a much bigger challenge.

The Tom Doak design features putting surfaces with drastic undulations and hilly bums within the greens, so ultra precision will be required with irons. Plus, like most links setups, this course’s greens possess run-off areas that will lead to challenging up-and-downs should players miss the putting surface.

Additionally, bunkers provide an extra layer of resistance to players, forcing an added layer of accuracy both off the tee and on approach.

Here are the leaders in SG: approach and GIRs gained over the last 12 rounds:

Strokes-Gained: Approach

1. Antoine Rozner (+16000)
2. Xander Schauffele (+1800)
3. Cameron Smith (+2800)
4. Hideki Matsuyama (+3400)
5. Sam Burns (+3100)

GIRs Gained

1. Sam Burns (+3100)
2. Corey Conners (+5500)
3. Xander Schauffele (+1800)
4. Adria Arnaus (+16000)
5. Jon Rahm (+1100)

Key Stat #4 – Birdies Or Better Gained (15 percent emphasis)

Correlated Stats – Three-Putt Avoidance (5 percent emphasis), Putting – 5 to 10 feet (5 percent emphasis, Putting – 10 to 15 feet (5 percent emphasis)

Historically, this event has tended to produce birdies galore with winning scores ranging from 11-under to 22-under par.

Mostly, that’s a result of the fact that across the last three years, there’s been little wind resistance to throw players off their game. If that changes, there’s a chance bettors could see a much lower winning score compared to past years at The Renaissance Club.

Either way, there are still birdie opportunities on the course, so players who have gained scoring chances on the field should have success here. As mentioned earlier, this track features four par 5’s that, although lengthy, have seen players score at a high percentage in recent years.

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But beyond the birdies gained, there are a few more putting metrics worth including. Even though the greens tend to run slower compared to frequent PGA Tour tracks, I’m using three-putt avoidance based on the aforementioned complexities with the greens.

Lastly, as is standard with most of my models, I want to factor in players who are strong putters from short distances, hence the inclusion of the final two greenside metrics.

That said, here are the leaders in birdies or better gained across the last 12 rounds:

1. Xander Schauffele (+1800)
2. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1800)
3. Patrick Cantlay (+2400)
4. Sam Burns (+3100)
5. Scottie Scheffler (+1100)

Key Stats #5 & #6 – Strokes-Gained: Par 5’s (12 percent emphasis), Strokes-Gained: Par 4’s – 450 to 500 yards (9 percent emphasis)

We’ve only harped on it a ton so far, but I can’t stress enough how important Par-5 scoring is at The Renaissance Club.

Just last year, the three playoff participants — Lee, Thomas Detry and Fitzpatrick — collectively played these four holes to -27 for the entire week. Just those four holes represented half of those players’ collective final scores for the week.

In the year prior, play-off participants Aaron Rai and Tommy Fleetwood combined to shoot -22 across 72 holes. Their par-5 outputs combined for -13. Thus, players can easily get to the winner’s circle just by performing above-average on holes three, seven, 10 and 16.

Beyond those holes, though, the nine par 4’s at this course give lengthy players a significant advantage. Of those nine holes, five fall between 450 and 500 yards while six measure at least 440 yards.

For that reason, players who have historically performed well on those types of holes should carry an added advantage into the Renaissance Club.

Here are the leaders in both SG: Par 5’s and SG: Par 4’s – 450 to 500 yards over the last 12 rounds:

Strokes-Gained: Par 5’s

1. Patrick Cantlay (+2400)
2. Brian Harman (+6500)
3. Scottie Scheffler (+1100)
4. Mito Pereira (+6500)
5. Joaquin Niemann (+4000)

Strokes-Gained: Par 4’s – 450 to 500 yards

1. Aaron Rai (+6500)
2. Cameron Young (+6000)
3. Justin Thomas (+1200)
4. Will Zalatoris (+2800)
5. Sungjae Im (+4000)