Blues vs. Avalanche Game 5 odds, prediction

It was expected that Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs between the Blues and Avalanche would be ornery after what transpired between Nazem Kadri and Jordan Binnington, but nobody could have expected St. Louis to completely lose its cool.

Rather than focusing on knotting up the series, the Blues spent a majority of the game chasing Kadri around the ice and paid the price. Not only did the Avalanche win, 6-3, to take a 3-1 series lead, but Kadri scored a hat-trick. It was an embarrassing effort from the Blues, who should know better considering they won the Stanley Cup three years ago.

What’s most disappointing is that the Blues had played pretty well in Games 2 and 3, especially before Binnington got hurt. In those two contests, St. Louis held Colorado to just 2.84 expected goals at 5-on-5, which is a tremendous accomplishment considering Colorado’s offensive firepower. And even though the Blues lost Game 3 to go down, 2-1, there were signs that St. Louis could drag this series to six or seven games if Ville Husso provided decent goaltending.

That all came undone in Game 4, however, as the Blues lost the plot and were running around all night — despite getting a 1-0 lead. Rather than snapping back into their game after going ahead, St. Louis completely folded and were eventually outshot, 34-14, at 5-on-5. The expected goals, which ended 2.4 to 0.9 in Colorado’s favor at 5-on-5, also paint the picture of a well-deserved victory for the Avalanche.

Avalanche vs. Blues Game 5 preview (8:00 p.m. ET, TNT)

With the series shifting back to Colorado and the Avalanche seemingly in control, the betting market is likely to move towards the Avs as we get closer and closer to puck drop on Wednesday night. Colorado closed as a -265 favorite in Game 2, which also took place in Denver and came on the heels of an impressive win, so there’s a chance that this line ticks up towards -280 or beyond by the time Game 4 gets underway.

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That presents bettors with an age-old dilemma. At this point, we know that the Colorado Avalanche are much better than the Blues. They’re at home. And they’re coming off back-to-back wins on the road, including one where their opponents came unglued. Everything is pointing towards the Avs wrapping this chapter of their postseason run up in five games.

But bookmakers know this, too. And that means if you’re going to bet the Avs, you need to know you’re going to be paying a recency-bias tax on Colorado.

It’s a daunting task for St. Louis and it’s hard to blame anybody for just squaring out and playing the Avalanche in Game 5, but the number on the Blues is likely going to get high enough where it’s worth a play. And if you’re brave enough to bet on St. Louis, you may as well wait until right before puck drop because it’s hard to imagine this number shortening based on what happened in Game 4.

Blues vs. Avalanche Game 5 pick

St. Louis Blues +210 (odds courtesy of BetMGM)