Can BTC Price Rebound 30%?

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s 50-day EMA bounce aligns with a bullish pattern targeting $148,000.

• Old whale’s 80,000 BTC selloff marks third profit wave, often a prelude to a recovery.

Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped by 7.50% three weeks after establishing its record high at around $123,250. But analysts say this may be the final shakeout before a breakout toward $150,000.

BTC holds critical moving average support

On Sunday, Bitcoin retook its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) as support after briefly dipping below it a day prior.

The 50-day EMA has served as a reliable support level for initiating fresh rallies. In June, for instance, a brief drop below this wave support preceded a sharp 25% rebound.

Related: Bearish Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin could retrace to $100K on macro headwinds

Now, BTC appears to be repeating the same setup, and analyst BitBull says that the cryptocurrency may undergo a June-like in the coming days.

He argues that even a drop into the $110,000–$112,000 range would establish a “perfect bottom” for Bitcoin, potentially setting the stage for the next leg higher.

Classic technical breakout targets $148,000

The 50-day EMA support further aligns with the neckline of Bitcoin’s prevailing inverted head-and-shoulders (IH&S) pattern.

After breaking above this neckline, BTC has pulled back to retest it—a typical post-breakout move—and bounced, reinforcing the validity of the bullish reversal setup.

The successful neckline retest now signals that Bitcoin may be entering the continuation phase of its breakout, with the IH&S pattern targeting a move toward $148,250.

That is near the widely anticipated $150,000 BTC upside target for 2025, which many analysts expect to happen around October.

Old Bitcoin whale’s $9.6 billion selloff is bullish

Onchain data further indicates that Bitcoin’s ongoing price dip may lead to another major breakout.

Bitcoin has seen three major waves of profit-taking by whales during the 2023–2025 bull market, according to CryptoQuant data.

The first followed the March 2024 launch of US spot ETFs. The second came after BTC broke $100K post-Trump election in late 2024. The third occurred in July 2025 after a breakout over $120,000 triggered an 80,000 BTC selloff by an old whale.

Each wave of profit-taking preceded a period of price consolidation or moderate correction, lasting between two to four months, wrote CryptoQuant analysts in a report published Friday.

“These cooling phases have historically set the stage for renewed accumulation and a subsequent breakout to new all-time highs,” they say, adding:

“The data provides compelling evidence that the market is undergoing another cyclical cooling phase, consistent with prior waves that preceded periods of consolidation and later breakouts to higher prices.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.