Cook Political Report moves Pennsylvania Senate race from lean Democratic to toss up: ‘I’m the change candidate,’ GOP hopeful Dave McCormick says

WASHINGTON, Pa. — The race between three-term Democratic incumbent Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey and Republican challenger Dave McCormick is now rated a toss up — and the self-described “underdog” tells The Post he expects only more gains at the polls.

The highly regarded, bipartisan Cook Political Report moved the race from lean Democratic Monday after recent surveys showed McCormick tied and even leading, though the RealClearPolitics average still has Casey ahead by 1.9 points.

McCormick learned the news while touring gas wells in Washington County to Pittsburgh’s southwest.

“This race is extremely competitive, and I’m the underdog,” the GOP businessman told The Post.

But he emphasized Pennsylvania wants to turn the page from Casey’s long tenure and the “radical extremism of Biden-Harris,” citing historic inflation under a Democratic White House and Senate, the fentanyl crisis “killing communities across Pennsylvania” and the Dem “assault on fossil fuels.”

“This is a change election,” McCormick said, “and I’m a change candidate.”

“The more people think about that, the more my poll numbers rise,” the former hedge-fund executive and Gulf War veteran said.

Jewish voters, long considered Democratic mainstays, are showing their lowest support for Democrats since the Reagan era, for instance: 62% of Jews are concerned about antisemitism in the party as Israel enters its second year fighting Hamas terrorists in Gaza.

Those issues could help swing some of the 400,000 Jewish voters in Pennsylvania towards President Donald Trump and McCormick.

Pittsburgh Jewish Democrats have told The Post they’re voting Republican for the first time as Casey has refused to revoke his endorsement of anti-Israel Squad member Rep. Summer Lee, who represents the city and blames Israel for the Oct. 7 massacre in which Hamas killed and kidnapped more than 1,400 people in the Jewish state.

But to win the race, McCormick said, “We have to have a Republican base turn out. They seem extremely energized behind President Trump and also me.”

A new Trafalgar Group poll shows Trump up 46% to Kamala Harris’ 43% in the Keystone State, just after Trump hit the fryolator Sunday at an eastern Pennsylvania McDonald’s. Five percent of voters are undecided, and 5% are behind other candidates.

FiveThirtyEight’s polling average has Trump leading Harris by 0.3 points.

But McCormick is pining for undecided voters.

“They’re coming my way,” he said, right before heading into a Building America’s Future town hall with Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso.

“I have a secret. I think I’m gonna win,” McCormick told the audience.

Casey released an ad Friday bucking President Biden on fracking and aligning with Trump on trade policy, days after The Washington Post called out Casey for falsely claiming in another ad that McCormick wants to cut Medicare and Social Security.

McCormick told The Post Friday Casey is “panicking.”

Though Cook changed its rating of the race, it still predicts Democrats will hold the Senate.