COP26: China’s climate plan promises to peak CO2 emissions before 2030

China is responsible for 27 per cent of global emissions, making its newly announced climate plan an important move ahead of the COP26 climate summit

By Adam Vaughan

China has promised to peak its carbon dioxide emissions before 2030, in an upgrade of its climate change plans that comes just three days before the start of COP26 summit in Glasgow, UK. But critics say China has missed the chance to go further and demonstrate global climate leadership.

The revised plan submitted to the United Nations, known as a nationally determined contribution, formalises several pledges made by Chinese president Xi Jinping earlier this year and in 2020.

It commits China to peaking its emissions before 2030, rather than around 2030 as previously promised. China says it will also reduce its “carbon intensity” – a measure of emissions per unit of gross domestic product – by 65 per cent by 2030, compared with 2005 levels. That is the upper end of the 60 to 65 per cent range set out in its earlier proposal.

Bernice Lee at UK think tank Chatham House says: “You can’t sugar-coat it is disappointing. The world was expecting more from China at this point. It had missed a chance to slow global leadership.” However, she says one positive is China’s promise to peak emissions before 2030, an upgrade on the previous pledge of “peaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to peak early”. 

The plan also pledges to cut the share of fossil fuels in China’s energy consumption to 75 per cent by 2030, an upgrade on the previous promise of 80 per cent. It confirms two earlier announcements on coal, the most polluting of fossil fuels, which accounts for more than 60 per cent of the country’s energy supply. The first is to phase down coal consumption between 2025 and 2030. The second is to not finance new coal power schemes overseas, a key commitment given that China is the single biggest funder of such projects.

Overall, the new scheme represents a reiteration of previous public promises by China, rather than providing any surprises or big increases in ambition.

Isabel Hilton at China Dialogue, a non-profit organisation, says expectations for China’s new climate plan were low because the government’s narrative amid the country’s ongoing energy crisis, which has seen prices rise, has been about a “steady and careful” energy transition rather than “big ambition”.

“On the positive side, it means Xi Jinping not coming [to Glasgow] is not a sign that China is either not interested or lacks seriousness or commitment,” says Hilton. But on the downside, “it’s not a big mood lifter, to be honest”, she says.

Li Shuo at Greenpeace East Asia said that it was inadequate and “casts a shadow” on global climate action. “The planet can’t afford this being the last word. Beijing needs to come up with stronger implementation plans to ensure an emission peak before 2025,” he tweeted.

China is the world’s biggest emitter, responsible for 27 per cent of global emissions, which makes it a key player in determining whether the world meets the goals of the Paris Agreement. The aim of COP26 is to put governments closer on track to meeting those targets, and China’s plan alone won’t achieve this. The previous pledges made by Xi that were formalised today were included in a UN analysis on Tuesday, which showed Earth will warm by about 2.7°C.

India now remains the only major emitter yet to have submitted a new plan as COP26 draws near.

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