Defecting is a lot like flirting — too much build-up spoils the moment

Good morning. A little over four years ago, in the early summer of 2018, I had started work on a cover story for the New Statesman. I had been talking to some of the people who would eventually split off from the Labour party to form the Independent Group in February 2019.

Writing that story underlined something for me. Defection from one party to another, even if it is an attempt to form a “new force” like the shortlived Independent Group or the Social Democratic Party back in the 1980s, is always a longer process than it seems.

Once an MP has made up their mind to go they are often keen to get it out of the way as soon as possible. In the end, one factor which led the Independent Group’s seven founder-members to defect when they did was that Luciana Berger, the then Labour MP, wanted to get out of the Labour party before the birth of her baby — but the journey to leaving often takes a long time.

Because defectors are often losing friends and allies, these things are often done under cover of secrecy, and a good general rule of thumb is the more stories there are about defections, the less likely it is there will be defections. So I am dubious, frankly, that all these stories of defections are going to lead to much in the short term.

Inside Politics is edited by Georgina Quach. Follow Stephen on Twitter @stephenkb and please send gossip, thoughts and feedback to [email protected].

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Six Conservative MPs could be on the verge of defecting to the Labour party, the Sunday Times reported over the weekend. Three Tory MPs first elected in 2019 are in talks about making the switch, as per yesterday’s Telegraph. Meanwhile, over at the Guardian, Jessica Elgot reports that “at least one” Conservative MP first elected in 2019 is in talks with Labour MPs about making the switch.

It isn’t always the case that the best way to turn someone off a defection is for the story to end up in the news. But it is often the case that a real defection takes place under cover of darkness. Most defections happen very quickly and without much prior warning — like Christian Wakeford’s from Conservative to Labour earlier this year, or Quentin Davies making the same journey in 2007 — because stories about defections have a risk of spoiling the kill.

One Liberal Democrat who was closely involved in many of the defections to that party in the 2018-19 period described the process as “a lot like flirting”. They said the process of gradually persuading someone to switch parties is like wooing someone because generally when people decide to make it official they want to make the switch right away. There’s also a desire on the new party side to make the announcement official because just as a would-be defector has all sorts of anxieties on their side, their new party will always be nervous that their “defector” is in fact just a spy.

The only example of a defection that really and truly could be said to have been kept in reserve for the right moment is Sam Gyimah, whose unveiling as a defector was timed for the Liberal Democrat conference. That was in large part because of the pre-existing personal relationship between Gyimah and the then leader of the Lib Dems, Jo Swinson, who had known Gyimah before he was an MP. That higher level of trust meant that the party felt able to milk the defection for all it was worth.

All of this is partly why some Tory MPs think that this latest round of stories about defections is Labour mischief-making, rather than a sign that another defection is on the cards.

Are they right? Maybe! The defection chatter is already having a happy consequence for Labour, in that it opens up a conversation about how bad the Conservative party’s political position is at the moment and it makes individual Tory MPs suspicious of each other.

But remember, too, that defection is a two-way street: the MP in question has to be willing to make the journey and their new party has to be willing to welcome them in. As Jess’s great piece makes clear, one other important subplot here is that in great and growing numbers of seats the Conservatives won in 2019, there is already a Labour candidate in place or a selection that is considerably advanced:

Labour is ramping up its selection process for key marginal seats over the coming weeks and party sources warned that potential defectors did not have long to make up their minds. “If we’ve selected someone in the seat, we would want to field our candidate,” one said.

“We’re selecting good people, Keir’s people, and that’s who we would prioritise. Ultimately, we think we’re going to win these seats anyway. The Wakefield result shows we are on course to win back the vast majority of those seats.”

Added to that, the Labour leadership isn’t convinced that some of those MPs who are considering the switch have really made an ideological journey, as opposed to one of convenience. It’s a world away from Wakeford’s defection, both in the amount of noise and the amount of warmth coming from the Labour side.

A big reason to be dubious that we will see defections isn’t just that stories about defections tend to scare off defectors — it is also that the host party doesn’t sound that keen on the idea at present.

Now try this

Coming soon to bookshops: Venomous Lumpsucker, the latest novel by Ned Beauman, one of my favourite writers. Beauman writes comic, genre-bending literary fiction, and his work is peppered with lovely lyrical flourishes and excellent one-liners.

(Years on, I am still using The Teleportation Accident’s wonderful aside that a character woke up to find they had been “sent the wrong hangover”. Depressingly that seems to be happening with growing regularity as I get older.)

Venomous Lumpsucker is one of the books that Financial Times writers have picked out in our books package: read the full list here and please do send me your suggestions for what I should take on holiday later in the year.