A new report says Europe could face a new aggression within the next decade. Here’s what it needs to defend itself without the Americans.
A new joint report by the Bruegel think tank and the Kiel Institute has warned that new Russian aggression in Europe is “conceivable”, citing NATO claims that Moscow could be “ready to attack within three to ten years”.
According to official data, the US has over 80,000 American servicemen on the continent, which would be at least tripled in case of foreign aggression.
However, the recent deterioration of transatlantic ties is sparking concerns about an American disengagement, particularly after Washington sidelined European leaders in negotiations with Russia on a deal with Ukraine.
Although the new US Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed withdrawal speculations, pressure on Europe to increase its military autonomy persists.
Conscription back on a large scale?
Europe’s national armies have a combined force of about 1.5 million personnel – much more than the current US force in Europe.
The report states that, if Washington does withdraw troops, Europe would need an additional 300,000 servicemen or around 50 brigades.
Co-author Alexandr Burilkov tells Euronews that they would be partially recruited through “conscription” and supported by the “development of large and well-trained reserves,” similar to the US National Guard.
As Europe’s military force lacks coordination and unified command, “it’s very much necessary to introduce a system that would increase the quantity of the available personnel and also the resilience of that system”, he says.
Huge concentration of land force needed in the Baltics
To deter a hypothetical Russian breakthrough in the Baltics, a European army would need 1,400 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles and 700 artillery pieces, as well as a million 155mm shells for the first three months of high-intensity combat.
That, however exceeds the current combat power of French, German, Italian and British land forces combined, says the Bruegel-Kiel report.
Drone production would also need to be scaled up to about 2,000 long-range loitering munitions every year to match Russia’s numbers.
“The Russians, in the past two years, have put their economy and their society largely on a war footing. They benefit from a whole lot of leftover infrastructure and equipment from Soviet times when the Red Army was actually colossal”, says Burilkov.
“They produced more than 1500 tanks per year. Thousands of armoured vehicles, hundreds of artillery pieces. We should try to create a military parity between Europe and Russia, which would maintain this deterrence without even having to necessarily resort to nuclear deterrence”.
With or without America, ‘Europe needs more military capabilities’
But simply raising the number of troops might not be enough, tells Euronews Luigi Scazzieri, from the Centre for European Reform.
“Europeans need to step up their defence whether the Americans leave or not”.
“To generate credible deterrence, you need to have more capabilities, particularly those on which we rely most on the US: Long-range missiles, aerial defences, aerial supply, air surveillance and transportation, for example”, Scazzieri added.
Harmonising European defence efforts through collective arms procurement, common armaments, unified logistics, and integrated military units is important, but won’t be enough without those capabilities and numbers, according to the analyst.
With regards to an actual European army, however, Scazzieri is pessimistic.
“It’s very difficult. But it could be an army of Europeans, rather than an actual European army.”
‘Extend French nuclear shield and develop European Sky Shield’
Not everybody agrees, however, that Europe needs to boost its number of troops.
“With 1.5 million soldiers in service, you don’t need 300,000 more, you need to use them in the right places”, Nicolas Gros-Verheyde, defence and foreign policy journalist, tells Euronews.
“Europeans could consider transforming their rotational presence as NATO forces into permanent military power bases in the countries closest to Russia.”
“Why not a maritime base in Constanza (Romania) and a land base between Poland and Lithuania, near the Suwalki corridor? It would also be useful to plan a presence in Moldova against the Russian forces in Transnistria.”
Another way to increase European deterrence would be extending the French nuclear shield, he says.
“In the same spirit, France should stop resisting the anti-missile defense project launched by the Germans (European Sky Shield Initiative). The two devices are fully compatible”.
France, however has been challenging the initiative, saying that the current European Sky Shield plan relies too much on non-European equipment and technology
Germany could lead European military budget rise
The Bruegel-Kiel report suggests that a way to increase Europe’s armaments in this way would be to increase its military budget by between €125bn and €250bn annually (or 3.5% of GDP) in the short term.
The spending hike would be funded through debt initiatives.
Germany, the second-biggest contributor to NATO, should play a pivotal role by taking charge of at least half of that budget, increasing its defence spending from €80 billion to €140 billion a year.
Burilkov says that will largely depend on the type of government that will lead Germany following the recent general election.
“Once we have a clearer idea of what the mood is in Berlin, we can see to what extent this can be configured. The thing is that of course there is political will, like there never has been in the past for collective European action”.
More European coordination means less military spending
Despite an initial surge in military spending, the report insists that a coordinated European approach would drive prices down in the long term.
“Larger orders should mean that production processes become more efficient, bringing down unit prices. However, a rapid demand increase will certainly drive up prices in the short-term”, the report suggests.
“Failure to coordinate means much higher costs and individual efforts will likely be insufficient to deter the Russian military”.
An existing tool for joint military purchases is the EDIRPA, the European Defence Industry Reinforcement programme, which is going to be replaced by the European Defence Industry Program in December 2025.
The allocated budget is expected to be €1.5 billion.
The European Court of Auditors however has called for amore substantial injectionfor the agency to be able to meet its targets.
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