European air forces need reform to boost deterrence against Russia

European NATO air forces should shift towards greater collective mission specialisation to rapidly increase their ability to deter potential Russian aggression, according to a new report published by the London-based think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).  

“As NATO’s European air forces attempt to transition towards a primary focus on the threat from Russia, most are likely to struggle to do so without reducing the breadth of mission sets and capability areas that they currently attempt to cover,” Dr Justin Bronk, senior research RUSI fellow said.  

With US attention increasingly turning towards the Indo-Pacific, Europe’s dependence on NATO’s overwhelming power is no longer certain, and organising the collective capabilities of NATO’s European air forces is therefore a way to fill possible gaps in US support. 

The report said that maintaining air superiority is essential as a deterrent against Russia, as Europe lacks the recruitment capacity, munitions manufacturing capacity and defence funding to match the needs for ground forces and land firepower required to repulse a Russian attack.  

“It is difficult to see how non-US NATO members could achieve a similar level of conventional force overmatch via any approach other than through airpower, given the many demographic, industrial and timeframe constraints on attempts to rapidly expand and reform land forces and navies,” Bronk argued in the report.  

In 2024, the US military had an estimated 13,209 aircraft, followed by France (972), Italy (800) and the United Kingdom (664).  

RUSI’s research warns that many European NATO air forces have limited national capabilities and tight budgets. It recommends moving away from expensive multi-role training and instead specialising by mission type within NATO. 

“Medium-sized air forces should focus on specific mission sets rather than trying to acquire a wide range of munitions in inadequate quantities,” the report states. 

Even for the UK and France, trying to maintain broad-spectrum forces on limited budgets has resulted in insufficient weapons stockpiles to defend NATO against Russian aggression — which could happen in five years’ time, according to several intelligence agencies.

An initial assessment by Bruegel suggests that without US support, an increase of around €250 billion per year (to around 3.5% of GDP) will be needed in the short term to deter Russia.

“Unless funding increases significantly, greater mission specialisation may be necessary,” RUSI’s research stressed. Without this shift, most European countries would have to cut other areas of defence to afford the stockpiles needed for one or more specialised missions. 

By specialising, NATO’s European air forces could stretch their budgets further while ensuring they have the right weapons in adequate supply. 

According to the report, this approach would be the fastest way to strengthen NATO’s readiness against Russia—but it requires commitment from medium and smaller European air forces. 

“Burden sharing only works if both parties take on burdensome responsibilities and prove that they can carry them out,” the report said.