Fourteen games occupy today’s MLB schedule, but which matchups are experts targeting on the betting board?
The Action Network PRO Report designates five factors — sharp money, big money, PRO systems, model edge and expert picks — to help distinguish certain plays from others available.
Today’s report sees three totals trigger at least a majority of the above factors. With that in mind, let’s dive into the recommendations.
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Expert MLB predictions and picks today
Game #1 – Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, 7:05 p.m. ET
Tuesday’s game saw the host Phillies smack the Nationals 11-0 and experts are once again expecting runs on Wednesday.
We’ve tracked a number of big money bets coming in on the over, which opened at 8.5 runs but currently sits on eight runs at most shops. In terms of the betting percentages, 71 percent of all bets have come on the over while 90 percent of the total handle is on the over.
Furthermore, there’s a model projection edge with this contest. According to the Action Network’s MLB power ratings, the total between these sides should rest at 8.68. Lastly, one top MLB betting expert from The Action Network is backing the over, giving that market three signals in its direction.
All that said, It is worth noting that one Action Network PRO System — Weather: Wind Blowing in — triggers the under. That system, which looks for sustained winds of between five and 35 mph on closing totals between six and 11, has a 55 percent historical win rate and seven percent return on investment.
Nationals vs. Phillies PRO Report Pick
Total Over 8 Runs (-105) — BetMGM
Game #2 – New York Yankees at Pittsburgh Pirates, 7:10 p.m. ET
The Pirates claimed game one of the series 5-2 on Tuesday and experts find themselves interested in another (relatively) low-scoring contest.
We’ve seen sharp action coming in on the under, which opened at nine runs but has since ticked down to 8.5 runs through early betting. Additionally, big money bettors are also interested in the under — as of this writing, that market has seen 54 percent of all bets against 97 percent of the total handle.
Finally, one top Action Network MLB expert is backing the under in Pittsburgh, giving this market three total signals.
Yankees vs. Pirates PRO Report Pick
Total Under 8.5 Runs (+100) — Caesars Sportsbook
Find out more about New York sports betting
Game #3 – Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET
There’s slight disagreement on this total, but the majority of signals head toward the under.
Though early betting, sharp action has come in on the over, which opened at 9.5 runs at has held steady at that number. But, big money has flowed in on the under — as of this writing, that market has seen 53 percent of all bets against 79 percent of the total handle.
Furthermore, the same system that triggers the under in Nationals-Phillies — Weather: Wind Blowing In — triggers the under in Boston. As a reminder, that system has a 55 percent historical win percentage and a seven percent return on investment.
Finally, there’s a model projection edge with this total. According to Action Network MLB power ratings, the total between these teams should be 8.94, giving one final signal to the under.
Rays vs. Red Sox PRO Report Pick
Total Under 9 Runs (+100) — BetMGM