Has the 1.5°C target set out in the Paris Agreement been breached?

Looking at the many heatwaves crippling large parts of Europe during the first summer weeks, the findings of July’s climate bulletin published by the European Union’s climate service Copernicus will not come as a surprise.

Last month was the fourth-warmest July on record in Europe, with average temperatures reaching 21.12°C, 1.30°C above the 1991-2020 average for July.

“There were some regional contrasts, as is often the case in Europe,” Julien Nicolas, Senior Scientist at Copernicus, told Euronews. The month started extremely hot in most of Europe, particularly the western part. “As the month progressed, temperatures cooled and conditions became wetter in the western and central parts of Europe.”

The anomalies which stood out in July were the much-above-average temperatures recorded in Scandinavia, where temperatures reached 30°C for several weeks. “That’s quite significant, and is not the weather we would expect to persist at these latitudes.”

Meanwhile, in Turkey, the temperature reached 50°C.

Long-term warming trend

One of the report’s key findings noted that, globally, July 2025 was 1.25°C above the estimated 1850-1900 average used to define the pre-industrial level. In 21 of the past 25 months, the average global temperature was 1.5°C or more above this level.

This begs the question: Does this mean the landmark Paris Agreement, which is ratified by all EU member states and aims to limit the long-term average temperature increase to 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level, has failed?

“That’s a debated question at the moment,” Nicolas said. “I think one must remember that the Paris agreement refers to a long-term average temperature of 1.5°C that shouldn’t be exceeded to avoid the most catastrophic and irreversible consequences of climate change. What we have seen over the past couple of years are temporary breaches of this limit.”

He explained that generally, the long-term average will only be considered exceeded when the level has been breached over a 20-year average—the length of time that is considered apt to characterise the climate and smooth out the natural fluctuation of the global temperature.

“Once we have reached this 20-year average of global temperatures rising above the 1.5°C, that’s when we can consider that we have exceeded the limit of the Paris Agreement,” Nicolas added.

The recent model predictions show that this limit might be reached as soon as 2030. “This is just a few years away. But we haven’t reached it yet.”

Copernicus scientists noted that the recent streak of global temperature records is over—for now. There will be periods of “cooling”, as in July 2025, when the average global temperature was “just” 1.25°C above the estimated 1850-1900 average. This is due to natural fluctuations in the climate.

“But that comes on top of the long-term warming trend that is directly related to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.” In other words, climate change hasn’t stopped.

Catastrophic effects

To this point, climate scientists regularly point to the effects of a warming world that are being witnessed in all corners of Europe. In July, fatal flash flooding hit parts of Romania, while an extreme heatwave claimed lives on Italy’s beaches.

“One thing to remember is that these extreme climate events didn’t start two years ago; we have seen them happening for many years,” said Nicolas. “We have seen the consequences of climate change. This also includes the melting of glaciers and sea level rise. But the fact that global average temperatures reached record levels makes these extreme climate events more likely.”

He emphasised that this long-term warming trend and its catastrophic implications won’t stop anytime soon, as long as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere.

For this reason, climate scientists continue to press for measures to counter this trend. “We see the urgency of continuing climate actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions globally. And that clearly is something that shouldn’t stop,” Nicolas said.

This is true even if the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Climate Agreement is exceeded. “We must continue doing everything we can to cut greenhouse gas emissions, because as we often say, every fraction of a degree matters.”

It is in this context that various civil society organisations and academia have voiced concern for and opposition to the European Commission proposing to allow international carbon offsets to help meet the EU’s 2040 climate targets.

This move raised concerns about outsourcing the emission reduction actions, which critics say effectively waters down climate ambitions.