Iran Strike Bets Usher Moves to Curb Prediction Markets

US Democratic lawmakers are working on a bill to police prediction markets after raising insider trading concerns over bets made on the timing of Israeli and US strikes on Iran.

Democrat Senator Chris Murphy said in a video posted to X on Wednesday that what he claimed were White House insiders made a “very specific bet” on Friday that the US would go to war with Iran on Saturday.

“Obviously, there are people close to Donald Trump who, on Friday, knew what was happening on Saturday, and it is very likely — probable even — that the people that placed those bets were people with inside information,” he said.

Murphy added that allowing bets on war to continue could see those close to the president “pushing us into war because they can cash in.”

A number of bets on Polymarket were widely circulated on Saturday, where six newly-created accounts reportedly earned around $1 million betting on the timing of US strikes on Iran.

In several cases, bets were made just hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran.

Bets on US strikes in Iran have so far generated $529 million in volume on Polymarket. Last month, a Polymarket trader made about $400,000 from a well-timed wager on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Bill to target prediction market insider trading 

Reuters reported on Thursday that Murphy and Democratic House Representative Mike Levin are working on the bill, intensifying pressure on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

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“It’s unbelievably clear to ​me that if anyone is using prior knowledge of military action for financial gain, that ​should be absolutely illegal,” Levin said. 

He added that commodity laws ban event contracts tied to war, terrorism, or other events “contrary to the public interest,” but the rules give prediction markets too much freedom.

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