Is Mt. Gox Repayment Delay Bullish or Bearish Long-Term?

Key takeaways:

• Institutional demand and ETF inflows have thus far absorbed the redistributed BTC from Mt. Gox.

• Rate cuts, trade optimism, and rising global liquidity strengthen Bitcoin’s path toward $150,000–$500,000.

Mt. Gox, a defunct crypto exchange, has postponed repayments to its creditors by a year and remains in control of around $4 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) as of Wednesday.

Is this latest delay in repayments bearish or bullish for the Bitcoin price moving forward?

Bitcoin up despite earlier Mt. Gox redistributions

The Mt. Gox trust has redistributed approximately 75% of its Bitcoin reserves to creditors since mid-2024, reducing its BTC holdings to 34,690 from 142,000, according to data resource Arkham Intelligence.

That means over $12 billion worth of Bitcoin in today’s value has already been dispatched, but it has not helped the bears keep prices down.

Since the repayments began, BTC has gained 85%, and, according to multiple analysts, may climb toward $150,000 by year’s end.

That suggests buyers easily absorbed any selling pressure from the Mt. Gox repayments, a sign of strong market depth amid relentless demand from US spot Bitcoin ETFs and public companies steadily adding BTC to their balance sheets.

For instance, Nasdaq-listed Strategy (MSTR) has single-handedly accumulated 414,477 BTC (~$47 billion) since mid-July, according to data resource Bitbo.IO. That is roughly 3.9 times more Bitcoin than what Mt. Gox redistributed to date.

Therefore, today’s Bitcoin market, supported by ETFs, sovereign interest, and corporate treasuries, can absorb several billion dollars of BTC more easily than during the 2017 or 2021 cycles.

Pushing Mt. Gox repayments to October 2026 means that roughly $4 billion in Bitcoin will be kept off the market, reducing the chance of a sudden market dump.

Macro conditions favor BTC price rising

Bitcoin bulls have projected the price to grow in the long term, citing macroeconomic catalysts that may mitigate any downside impact stemming from Mt. Gox’s BTC distribution.

First, markets are almost fully pricing multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts, signaling the start of an easing cycle. Lower borrowing costs reduce pressure on speculative assets, giving Bitcoin room to expand toward $150,000 in the coming months.

Progress toward a US–China trade deal has further improved global risk sentiment, removing one of the biggest overhangs on equities and crypto alike.

Global M2 money supply is accelerating at its fastest pace since 2020.

Analysts note that if Bitcoin follows the same liquidity-driven path as during the post-COVID expansion, it could climb toward $500,000 by 2026, potentially echoing its strongest historical uptrend.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.