Johnson optimistic he’ll remain House speaker as GOP holdouts threaten another marathon round of voting

Friday will be House Speaker Mike Johnson’s moment of truth as Republican holdouts decide whether he should lay claim to the gavel again in the next Congress — or opt instead to plunge their conference into disarray once more.

For his part, Johnson (R-La.) remains confident — at least in the public eye — and is privately burning up the phone lines, meeting with apprehensive Republicans and proudly touting his recent endorsement from President-elect Donald Trump.

“I think we get it done on the first round,” he declared on Fox Business Thursday afternoon. “I’m certainly hopeful for that, because, as we noted, we got to stick together. We’ll be operating with the smallest margin in US history for much of the first 100 days of the Congress, and perhaps longer into the year.”

“Look, I’m a proven fighter, I’m a MAGA conservative, but I’m also someone who can get everyone in that broad array that we have in the House GOP to work together, and that’s what’s necessary in the days ahead,” he added.

Not everyone shares his optimism.

“He doesn’t have the votes — which isn’t a secret,” one House GOP aide bluntly told The Post, predicting Johnson would fall short in the first round of voting on Jan. 3.

Not all Republicans expect he will meet the same fate, and thus far only Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) has publicly come out against him.

But Johnson can’t afford another defection.

At least half a dozen members remain undecided, including Reps. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), Andy Harris (R-Md.), Chip Roy (R-Texas), Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), among others, and he can only afford to lose one vote.

Johnson has long been facing an uphill battle to ascend back into the speaker’s chair in the 119th Congress, a tricky feat to begin with due to the slim GOP majority.

His critics also became reinvigorated during the government spending flap last month, per the aide, who claimed the initial bill Johnson unveiled was ” a disaster” and “full of Democrat wins.”

Through three successive drafts, Johnson eventually slimmed down that more than 1,500-page bill to a 118-page version, cutting several costly provisions but still leaving hardline Republicans unsatisfied.

GOP aides who spoke with The Post, however, believe that Johnson will be re-elected — it’s just a matter of how many rounds it will go.

The Louisiana Republican’s predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, sat through 15 rounds of voting before ascending to the speaker’s chair in January 2023. Johnson was unanimously elected three weeks after McCarthy’s ouster later that year in October.

As it was then, no viable alternatives who could win enough votes to become speaker have emerged.

Under House rules, a speaker needs to lock down a majority of votes to clinch the gavel. At the start of the 119th Congress, Republicans are set to have 219 seats, Democrats will have 215 and there is expected to be one vacancy from former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.).

A majority of 434 is 218, which is typically the magic number to become speaker. However, that arithmetic can change if lawmakers are absent or some opt to vote “present.”

Gaetz, who led the mutiny against McCarthy has also publicly urged Republicans to rally around him. In theory, the ex-Florida pol could show up on Friday and participate in the vote bringing the total defections Johnson can survive up to two. He’s given no public indication he will do that.

Meanwhile, House Democrats are keen on ensuring that all their members show up for the vote. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who is recovering from hip surgery, has jetted back to the nation’s capital for the big vote.

And they’ve also made clear that there is no appetite to bail Johnson out, particularly given the bad taste in their mouths over the collapsed government funding deal last month.

“There will be no Democrats available to save him — or the extreme MAGA Republicans — from themselves,” Jeffries told MSNBC last month, just before Christmas.

Democrats had previously bailed Johnson out when 11 Republicans backed an ouster effort in May in response to him passing military and economic assistance to Ukraine as part of a $95 billion foreign aid package.

Johnson met with some of the holdouts Thursday and has signaled reluctance to approve side deals, which had been controversial during McCarthy’s grovel for the gavel in January 2023.

“People are talking through process changes they want, and those kinds of things. And I’m open to that. And I think tomorrow’s going to go well,” Johnson told reporters after a meeting with some undecideds Thursday.

Johnson defenders have also noted that Democrats controlled the White House and Senate last Congress, while GOP power in the House was slim.

The House speaker has argued that next time will be different given Republicans’ control of the trifecta (House, Senate and White House).

Several Republican hardliners in the Senate have also urged their House counterparts to sink Johnson’s bid for moving Ukraine aid through the lower chamber as well as a bill reauthorizing the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA).

“As Congress debates re-electing the ‘accidental’ speaker Mike Johnson, conservatives across the country should remember Speaker Mike cast the deciding vote to allow a secret court (FISA) to search American records without a warrant and to send $60 BILLION to Ukraine. Pathetic,” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) chided.

Looming over their decision is Trump’s “complete” and “total” endorsement of Johnson on Monday which was intended to help get him over the finish line.

But that on its own appears to have done little to move potential rabble-rousers. And Trump told reporters earlier this week that he isn’t making calls on Johnson’s behalf.

“He’s the one that can win right now,” Trump told reporters about the Louisianan. “People like him. Almost everybody likes him … He’s a good man. He’s a wonderful person. And that’s what you need.”