Bitcoin’s next major catalyst may come from the common assumption being flipped on its head that interest rates are bullish for Bitcoin only when they fall, according to a crypto analyst.
“I think we should expect that having more accommodative policies may in fact actually not be the catalyst to help us go into a bull market,” ProCap Financial chief investment officer Jeff Park said during an interview with Anthony Pompliano on Thursday.
“We have to accept that reality and possibility,” Park said. Accomodative policies, such as lowering interest rates, are employed by the US Federal Reserve to stimulate economic growth, reduce unemployment, and increase liquidity. Bitcoiners often see these conditions as more favorable for riskier assets such as Bitcoin (BTC), as traditional investments like bonds and term deposits become less attractive.
Rising interest rates are usually seen as a negative for Bitcoin, but Park said that may not be the case forever. He said Bitcoin’s next biggest upside catalyst — and potentially its “endgame” — may be its entry into what he called a “positive row Bitcoin,” where the asset’s price continues to rise even as US Federal Reserve interest rates rise.
“Perfect holy grail” for Bitcoin
“This is the mythical, elusive perfect holy grail of what Bitcoin is meant to be, which is when Bitcoin goes up as interest rates go up, which is very counterintuitive to the QE theory,” he said.
However, Park said this idea would undermine the “risk-free rate itself.”
Park emphasizes the monetary system “is broken”
“In that world, what we’re saying is actually because the risk-free rate is not the risk-free rate, because the dollar hegemony is not the dollar hegemony, and we are no longer able to price the yield curve in the ways we’ve known,” Park said.
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Park explained that the monetary system is “broken” and the relationship between the Fed and the US Treasury is “not at the level it should be” to drive the direction of national securities.
Traders on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket are giving the highest probability, 27%, to three total Fed interest rate cuts in 2026.
Bitcoin is trading at $70,503 at the time of publication, down 22.53% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
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