Odds increase for a tropical storm in Gulf of Mexico as Florida faces flood risk

The FOX Forecast Center is monitoring the Gulf of Mexico, where an area of disturbed weather promises to make for some squally days similar to that of a nor’easter with gusty winds, heavy rainfall and rough seas for Florida.

The wet weather is associated with a broad area of low pressure known as the Central American Gyre, which will send plumes of moisture toward the Sunshine State. Over the next week, a widespread area could pick up 4-6 inches of rainfall, which could cause isolated flooding where precipitation repeatedly moves over the same area.

The National Hurricane Center has highlighted the Gulf of Mexico with a medium chance of development over the next week.

“In other words, the whole Gulf of Mexico is in the area where it develops or what the shape of it is going to be,” FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. “It’s impossible to say at this point because the various computer forecasts have all kinds of different ideas.”

Sea-surface temperatures are warm enough for tropical development, but the FOX Forecast Center warns hostile upper-level winds will work to keep significant development at bay over the next week.

How much rain is expected?

Forecast models show the heaviest rainfall is expected to be from the Interstate 4 corridor and southward, where a widespread area could see 4-6 inches of rainfall over the next week.

Because much of the rain will be spread out over several days, widespread flooding is not anticipated, but where thunderstorms repeatedly move over the same region, issues could arise.

The expected impacted region is farther south from where Hurricane Helene made landfall last week, so the hardest-hit areas of the Big Bend will not receive as much rainfall as locations such as Fort Myers, Orlando, Tampa and Miami.

“At the very least, rain late in the weekend into next week for a good part of the Florida Peninsula,” Norcross stated. “And we watch for the possibility of more southern development, and we see what happens with that.”

In addition to the rainfall, rough seas will lead to threats of increased rip currents and erosion along beaches – a pattern that will continue well into next week.

If tropical development doesn’t happen, is the hurricane season over?

If a tropical cyclone – whether a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane – does not form from the current area of disturbed weather, it doesn’t mean that the hurricane season is over for the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The waters in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf remain plenty warm for development, and October is typically the month with the most landfalls in South Florida.

According to NOAA historical data, more than 60% of landfalls in the region occur after the climatological peak of the hurricane season, which is Sept. 10.

The latest date a hurricane has ever hit the Sunshine State is Nov. 21, when Hurricane Kate slammed into the Florida Panhandle in 1985.

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Hurricane Kirk in the central Atlantic and Tropical Storm Leslie in the eastern Atlantic, but neither poses a direct threat to any landmasses over the next week.

There is also a new disturbance off the coast of Africa that is being tracked.