Over 65 and rising: Is the EU facing a demographic crisis?

Italy, Portugal, and Bulgaria recorded the highest population shares of over-65s in the EU in 2024. But how will the bloc’s demography evolve until 2100?

At the beginning of 2024, the EU population was estimated at 449.3 million people, with more than one-fifth being 65 years of age or older.

This number represents an increase of 0.3% compared with 2023 and a rise of 2.9% compared with 10 years earlier, according to the latest Eurostat figures.

In 2024, the share of over-65s increased in 26 EU countries compared with 2023, and only decreased in Malta.

The countries with the highest share of over 65s were in Italy (24.3%), Portugal (24.1%), Bulgaria (23.8%), Finland (23.4%), Greece (23.3%) and Croatia (23.0%).

Meanwhile, Luxembourg (15.0%) and Ireland (15.5%) had the lowest shares.

In the coming decades, an upward trend in ageing populations is expected due to increased longevity and consistently low levels of fertility.

This can lead to “an increased burden on those of working age to provide for the social expenditure required by the ageing population for a range of related services,” according to the EU’s official statistics agency.

Children between 0 and 14 years old made up almost 15% of the EU’s population, while people considered to be of working age accounted for over 60%.

The highest population shares of children in 2024 were observed in Ireland at 18.9%, Sweden at 17.1% and France at 17%.

On the other hand, the lowest shares were recorded in Italy (12.2%), Malta (12.3%) and Portugal (12.8%).

What will the EU’s demography look like in 2100?

Across the EU countries, the median age ranged from 39.4 years in Ireland to 48.7 years in Italy in 2024.

The median age in the EU increased by 2.2 years between 2014 and 2024.

Across the EU countries, there was a surge by 4 years in Italy, Slovakia, Greece, and Portugal.

However, in Germany, it decreased from 45.6 years in 2014 to 45.5 years in 2024, and in Malta, it declined from 40.5 years in 2014 to 39.8 years in 2024.

The EU’s population is projected to increase to a peak of 453.3 million people around 2026 and then gradually decline to 419.5 million by 2100.

The median age is expected to increase by 5.5 years, rising from 44.7 years in 2024 to 50.2 years in 2100.

The proportion of individuals aged 80 or above in the EU’s population is projected to see a 2.5-fold increase between 2024 and 2100, from 6.1% to 15.3%.

Video editor • Mert Can Yilmaz

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