It sounds odd to say a team is quietly off to a 50-29 start, but that’s how it feels for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Perhaps the lack of buzz is partly to do with what the Yankees are doing and partly to do with the fact that the Dodgers were the preseason World Series favorite, but it’s not like Los Angeles has done anything that would make you skeptical of its status as a World Series favorite.
In fact, the betting market has barely budged off its position that the Dodgers are the best team in baseball. Not only is Los Angeles a co-favorite to win the World Series with the Bronx Bombers at some sportsbooks, but no team in the Majors has closed as the betting favorite as many times as the Dodgers have this season. According to Action Labs, the Dodgers have closed as the underdog just twice this season and one of those games was essentially a pick’em where they went off at -105 against the Phillies.
Rockies vs. Dodgers MLB odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: COL +1.5 (+100) vs. LAD -1.5 (-120)
Moneyline: COL (+195) vs. LAD (-250)
Total: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
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Rockies vs. Dodgers prediction
At the time of writing, the Dodgers are -250 favorites against the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday. Should the game close at the current number, it will be the 29th time this season the Dodgers will close above -200, and the 13th time they close above -250.
All that said, the Dodgers have struggled in these spots this season. According to Action Labs, Los Angeles is just 7-5 when it closes at -250 or shorter and just 25-13 as favorites of at least -200. Those numbers may seem fine, but when you’re closing that high you need to win at a really high clip to pay off. If you blindly bet $100 on the Dodgers every time they closed at -200 or higher, you’d be down $241 (-6.5% ROI), despite the fact that you’d have won 65.8% of your bets.
With this in mind, Tuesday night’s tilt with the Rockies seems like a good spot to fade the Dodgers as heavy favorites, even if it means backing the struggling German Marquez.
Marquez owns some of the ugliest numbers in baseball this season, but he’s performed much better away from Coors Field this season with a 4.21 ERA, .307 wOBA, and .358 slugging percentage allowed on the road, compared to 7.17 ERA, .407 wOBA and .591 SLG% at home.
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Mitch White will get the call opposite Marquez and while he’s been reliable this season with a 3.93 ERA and 3.93 xFIP, he’s still a beatable opponent for the Rockies. Per StatCast, White ranks in the 44th percentile in average exit velocity, 40th percentile in barrel rate and 51st percentile in xwOBA this season. In other words, White has been solid, but not spectacular this season.
The Dodgers are capable of smoking any pitcher on any team, but this sets up as a decent buy-low spot for Marquez going up against a beatable pitcher and a depleted Dodgers lineup away from Coors Field.
Sean Zerillo’s Action Network MLB Model projects the Rockies as a +170 underdog on Tuesday night, so there’s enough value on Colorado +200 to warrant a wager.
Rockies vs. Dodgers MLB pick
Colorado Rockies +200 (BetMGM)