This week we expected two PGA Tour events but the WGC-HSBC Champions event in China has been canceled due to COVID-19. Now the Bermuda Championship becomes a full-field event and has the weakest field of the PGA Tour season.
Matt Fitzpatrick (11/1), a winner two weeks ago in the Andalucia Masters on the European Tour, is still seeking his first PGA Tour victory and will be doing so in the favorite’s role. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (16/1) has two top-5 worldwide finishes this fall. Patrick Reed (20/1) is the highest ranked player in the field (OWGR No. 24).
Here are some longer shots (odds by BetMGM) who are worth a wager this weekend.
Russell Knox (40/1): Has two appearances here in Bermuda — 11th (2019) and 16th (2020). He thrives on shorter, coastal courses. Career finishes include 13th (2015), 11th (2017) and 10th (2018) at Waialae; 15th (2018), 14th (2019) and seventh (2021) at Pebble Beach; ninth (2014) and second (2016) at Harbour Town; second (2015) and third (2016) at El Camaleon.
Ryan Armour (50/1): Has a pair of eighth-place finishes here in 2019 and 2020. Also has five top 25s at El Camaleon, which is a similar coastal setup.
Aaron Rai (50/1): After attaining his PGA Tour card at the Korn Ferry Tour finals, Rai has initially struggled on the PGA Tour, missing his first three cuts. Following those missed cuts, he returned to Europe where he finished 14th at Wentworth in the BMW PGA Championship and then finished 25th at Valderrama. His last victory was at the 2020 Scottish Open in rainy and windy conditions, so he should feel comfortable here.
Anirban Lahiri (66/1): Finished T-11 here last year and shot a 66 in the opening round in the 2019 event before having to withdraw after Round 1. Also was sixth at the Corales Puntacana, which is similar to this event, and this week’s setup at Port Royal is very reminiscent of some of the Asian Tour courses he played on for years.
Brian Stuard (80/1): Being straight off the tee is especially important here and Stuard is No. 2 on Tour in Driving Accuracy for the past three months. Has two runner-up finishes at correlated events like the Mayakoba/OHL Classic, four top-eight finishes at the Sony Open, a fourth at the Puerto Rico Open, and two top-15 finishes at the RSM/McGladrey Classic.
Adam Svensson (80/1): After losing his PGA Tour card in 2019, Svensson secured his return to the main tour with a superb year on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2021 when he won two events and finished third on the money list. In 2018, Svensson won the Great Abaco Classic in the Bahamas, an event typically affected by strong wind.
Bo Hoag (80/1): Finished T-11 here in 2019. Plus, he has a T-9 at Waialae in 2020 and a T-7 at the Bahamas Great Exuma Classic, so he has shown some mettle on these shorter coastal courses. He has also shown to be a very good wind player as he has gained +24.7 total strokes in windy conditions over the course of just nine total rounds.
Luke Donald (125/1): Former World No. 1 Donald is now ranked just outside the top 500. He returned to Europe off his assistant captaincy at the Ryder Cup with two made cuts after missing 14 of 18 thus far in 2020. Many players have pointed to a correlation between Port Royal and Harbour Town, and Donald’s record there is fantastic. He was sixth here after 36 holes last year (finished 40th), but this could be a place where he does well considering recent form does not seem to matter here.
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