The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Stefanik’s withdrawal as UN Ambassador nominee

The decision by President Trump to withdraw the nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) as UN Ambassador is about the math.

In so many ways.

Yes. There has been a tight House GOP majority all Congress. And that was a factor. But not the only one.

TRUMP ASKS STEFANIK TO WITHDRAW FROM UN AMBASSADOR CONTENTION OVER RAZOR-THIN HOUSE MAJORITY

In November, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said he “begged and pleaded” with Mr. Trump not to recruit any more House members for his administration after Mr. Trump drafted National Security Advisor and former Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) former Attorney General nominee and Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Stefanik to serve in his administration. It was believed that the Senate was poised in the next week or two to confirm Stefanik as UN Ambassador. She would have resigned from the House immediately. But this would come as the GOP feared losing one if not two of those special elections to succeed Gaetz and Waltz. Plus, if Stefanik resigned, it would take about three months for a special election to hit in upstate New York to fill her seat. And – because of splintering in the New York GOP – there is concern that Republicans could lose that seat in a special election.

But Fox is told that the problem wasn’t so much the potential of losing the special election in upstate New York – but when the VACANCY for that seat would come.

The House is trying right now pass President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) backed off the idea of advancing the bill before Easter.

It frankly will take weeks if not a few more months to pass that bill.

Here’s the other problem:

Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) just announced this week she is pregnant and due in August.

REPORTER’S NOTEBOOK: SHOULD THE HOUSE ALLOW MEMBERS OF CONGRESS TO VOTE REMOTELY?

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) is now sparring with Johnson over her plan to go over his head and compel the House to allow for remote voting for expectant or new mothers. Luna and the co-sponsor of her resolution, Rep. Brittany Pettersen (D-Colo.), have spoken at length about how tough it is to travel and make votes late in a pregnancy. One source told Fox that Republicans could be worried about losing ANOTHER GOP member if Cammack is unavailable for votes ahead of giving birth – as the House attempts to pass the “big, beautiful bill.”

That, of course, presumes that Luna and Pettersen aren’t successful with their initiative to allow for remote voting.

Here’s another issue:

The president also indicated that Stefanik would return to the House GOP leadership table – although how is unclear. Stefanik previously served as the House Republican Conference Chairwoman. Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) now holds that position. Multiple senior House Republican sources told Fox all day before the withdrawal that they weren’t aware of anything going on. “I hope not,” replied one member of the House GOP brain trust when asked about a potential withdrawal. And yet now President Trump is shoehorning Stefanik back into the GOP leadership when House Republican leaders appeared to have no clue that the President was about to yank Stefanik’s nomination.

DEMOCRATIC REP. RAUL GRIJALVA DEAD AT 77

Now, here’s something which will cook your noodle.

This is completely hypothetical. But worth exploring.

The House is currently comprised of 431 members. There are 218 Republicans and 213 Democrats. There are four vacancies.

Former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) did not take office. Former Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) resigned. Late Reps. Sylvester Turner (D-Texas) and Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.) died.

Let’s just say the Republicans – although unlikely – lose the two House special elections in Florida. With Democratic victories, the House would then have 433 members with 218 Republicans and 215 Democrats. Still two vacancies with the deaths of Turner and Grijalva.

But if the Senate confirmed Stefanik, and she resigned, the House would be 217 Republicans and 215 Democrats with three vacancies: Stefanik, Turner and Grijalva.

However…

Had Turner and Grijalva lived, DEMOCRATS would have control of the House at 218-217 under that scenario. And notably, the House has never flipped in the middle of a Congress.

This is why Johnson pleaded last November for Mr. Trump not to poach any other Republicans from the House.