Less than one month separates soccer bettors from the launch of the 2022-23 domestic league calendar.
Both the Premier League and Bundesliga will begin their respective campaigns on Aug. 5, while the Bundesliga and Serie A will follow a week later. And, although most of the betting handle will head to the English top-flight, I’ve identified futures markets in other domestic competitions that present good value.
One comes in Serie A, where I’m choosing to back a league winner, with another coming in the Bundesliga, where I’m choosing to take a shot on a top-four finisher.
With that in mind, let’s get to my top non-EPL futures bets for the upcoming campaign.
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Best Bet #1 – Inter Milan to Win Serie A (+175)
Odds via BetMGM
Inter finished only two points behind their intra-city rivals AC Milan last year but bring tremendous upside into the new season.
Despite finishing in second place last year, Inter held the league’s top goal differential (+52) and the top expected goal differential (+42.2), per fbref.com. The next closest challenge in the latter category (AC Milan) finished the 2021-22 season with a +28.3 expected goal differential.
Expand the sample set to include all of Inter’s last four seasons and prospective bettors will find the Nerazzurri have accumulated a +135.6 expected goal differential. Over that same span, Juventus – the second-favorite on the Serie A futures board and only other team to finish fourth or better in all four season — has posted a +98.4 xGDiff.
Plus, Inter made — in my opinion — the best squad updates in the summer transfer window. They added former striker Romelu Lukaku on loan from Chelsea and made Joaquin Correa’s loan deal permanent to bolster their attack. Manager Simone Inzaghi’s side also added Roma winger Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Ajax goalkeeper Andre Onana, which will give a boost to their overall depth.
Furthermore, there’s still an outside shot Inter could add Juventus attacking midfielder Paolo Dybala to the fold, which would undoubtedly give Inzaghi the best attack in Serie A.
But, what gives me the most confidence in Inter is their ability to rack up points at home. Across the last four seasons, Inter has dropped all three points only eight times or 10.5 percent of their games. Just in the last two seasons, Inter have won all three points in 82 percent of home matches and has led the league in home points each year.
Given last year marked the first time since 2015-16 the leading home points getter failed to lift the domestic crown, I’m prepared to buy in on Inter to win their second title in three years.
Best Bets #2 & #3 – Union Berlin Top-Four Finish (+2500)
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Historically, the fourth and final Champions League spot in the German top-flight has proved quite volatile.
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Over the last three seasons, a new team has vaulted into Europe’s top competition before falling off in the subsequent season. In 2019-20, Leverkusen dropped to fifth after finishing fourth the season prior. In 2020-21, Borussia Monchengladbach dropped to eighth after finishing fourth. Then, in 2021-22, Wolfsburg fell all the way to 12th a year after snatching the fourth spot on the table.
That leads me to believe Leverkusen, who overperformed quite a bit last year (+33 goal differential on a +20.2 xGDiff), could be in for a letdown. So, I’m taking a shot with teams I believe could fill that void.
That leads me to Union, who finished fifth last season and was only a point out the Champions League spots. The hallmark of Union’s squad is its defense, which allowed the second-fewest expected goals in the Bundesliga last season. Plus, it tied for the third-most home points in the league.
The path to the top-four is clear for Union: pick up more points against inferior sides. Lady luck hasn’t been on Union’s side in fixtures against sides that have finished outside the top-four — across the last two seasons, Union has won all three points in 46 percent of games against such opposition. However, it won the expected goals battle in 69 percent of those fixtures.
If Union experience some positive regression based on that trend, it could easily pick up the necessary points to vault into a top-four spot. Plus, it’s worth noting that the last three teams to fill a top-four spot in the subsequent campaign finished fifth-seventh in the previous season.
Does it worry me Union sold its top goal-scorer? I’d be lying if I said no. However, the addition of Jordan Pefok should help offset that loss. Ultimately, though, I believe this price is far too high on a team that was right up there last season.
