Trump leads Harris in crucial states Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, poll finds

Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in three crucial swing states, according to a Monday poll from the New York Times.

Trump is leading Harris in Arizona by five points in a 50%-45% spread, and he holds a similar 49%-45% lead in Georgia. Harris is closer to the former president in North Carolina, however, where the race sits at 49%-47%, according to the poll.

The Times conducted its poll from Sept. 17-21, surveying 2,077 likely voters across all three states.

Arizona and Georgia would be major victories for Trump in the general election, as both are states that President Biden won in 2020. Arizona in particular represents a major swing toward Trump, where a Times poll in August found Harris leading by five points.

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The Times survey comes days after a Fox News national poll found Harris leading Trump by two points in a 50%-48% matchup.

The new Fox News national survey found a 3 percentage-point shift among registered voters in the 2024 presidential contest since mid-August. Trump had a 1-point advantage in August.

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Since the August survey, many events have occurred that could affect voter opinion: the Democratic National Convention was held; Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump; former Vice President Dick Cheney and former Congresswoman Liz Cheney endorsed Harris; and the candidates faced off in a debate. A second assassination attempt on Trump happened about three-quarters of the way into the new survey.

Many Republican pollsters are confident in Trump’s chances given the national polling. Hillary Clinton beat Trump by two percent in the national vote in 2016, but lost in the Electoral College.

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“Our best estimates are that if Trump is within 2 points of Harris nationally then he will likely win in the Electoral College,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News surveys with Democrat Chris Anderson. “These data showing a Trump edge in the key counties and battleground states suggest that’s probably right.”

Fox News’ Dana Blanton contributed to this report.