What do we know about the fate of Russia’s military bases in Syria?

The fate of Russia’s prized air and naval bases on Syrian territory hangs in the balance after the dramatic ousting of Kremlin ally President Bashar al-Assad.

Russia has two military bases in Syria: the Tartus naval base on the Mediterranean coast and the Khmeimim Air Base near the port city of Latakia. They are considered among the Kremlin’s most strategically important military outposts.

The Tartus site is particularly critical, providing Russia with its only direct access to the Mediterranean sea and a base to conduct naval exercises, station warships and even host nuclear submarines.

But according to Russian news agency TASS, Syrian rebel fighters have already taken full control of Latakia province where both bases are based.

The Kremlin says it is taking steps to “establish contact in Syria with those capable of ensuring the security of military bases,” according to spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.

Russian state media has also claimed Moscow has secured the fate of the bases as part of a deal that saw Bashar al-Assad and his family offered refuge in Russia.

Is Russia withdrawing military assets?

But there has been a flurry of reports, including from Russian military bloggers, which suggest Russia is withdrawing from its bases.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia is pulling out its weapons and military equipment and evacuating troops from its Syrian bases.

“To retreat from Syria, the Russians have deployed a caravan of military transport aircraft, which are loading the remaining troops, weapons, and military equipment,” Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) said in a statement.

According to Reuters, satellite imagery of Russia’s Tartus base suggests at least three warships have left the port and set anchor at sea around 13km from the coast.

The US-based think tank, Institute for the Study of War (ISW), has cited OSINT analyst MT Anderson’s claim that much of the Russian fleet has fled the port and is anchored 8km out at sea.

“Satellite imagery taken on December 9 also shows that Russian vessels — likely the ‘Admiral Gorshkov’ Gorskhov-class frigate, ‘Admiral Grigorovich’ Grigorovich-class frigate, ‘Novorossiysk’ Kilo-class submarine, and ‘Vyazma’ Kaliningradneft-class oiler – are in a holding pattern in the roadstead about eight kilometres west of the port,” the ISW said.

Euronews was unable to independently verify those claims at the time of publication of this article.

Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has claimed that Russia’s warships would remain at their base in Tartus.

What would a forced retreat mean for the Kremlin?

The loss of its military presence in Syria would be a big setback for Russia.

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Geographically and strategically, it is a critical site for Moscow to transit military assets into African countries where it conducts operations.

The ISW warns that the loss of Russian bases in Syria “will likely disrupt Russian logistics, resupply efforts, and Africa Corps rotations, particularly weakening Russia’s operations and power projection in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa.”

The swift toppling of al-Assad’s regime has already delivered a blow to Russia and its ambitions to expand its influence in the Middle East.

The lightning speed with which the rebels took Damascus has been partly attributed to the absence of the Kremlin’s steadfast support, as it focuses on the war in Ukraine.

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“The regime’s fall was far quicker and less bloody than anyone could possibly have imagined – especially given the belief that Russia and Iran would keep supporting Assad. The regime’s hollowing out finally left it helpless to withstand the rebel advance,” according to Julien Barnes-Dacey of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

But Russian state media citing Kremlin sources say that the regime in Moscow is aiming to engage with the rebels during the transition of power, with the ultimate aim of safeguarding their military bases on Syrian territory.