What scares western European governments more – Russia or the bond market? By Investing.com

Investing.com — Western European governments face a complex balancing act between addressing security threats and managing fiscal constraints, according to Citi analysts.

As President Trump renews calls for NATO allies to increase defense spending, questions are arising about how Western Europe will respond.

Citi highlights that Trump’s pressure could push European nations to allocate 3% of GDP to defense spending, but this goal may not be realized until the 2030s.

If countries resist these demands, there could be “real ambiguity around US security guarantees,” which would likely force Europe to unilaterally bolster its defense capabilities.

In Eastern Europe and Scandinavia, countries like Poland are already spending 4-5% of GDP on defense in response to heightened security concerns.

However, Western European nations, including the UK and France, have been slower to act, according to the bank. Fiscal constraints, especially in the UK, are said to be significant barriers. 

“[The] UK Strategic Defense Review in 2025 may prove a clear example of the pressure the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer is under,” said Citi.

“In the mid-term, we think Europe spending is likely to move higher (though 3% of GDP may be optimistic), in order to satisfy US demands,” they added. “If European Defense spending does move to 3% of GDP in the mid-term, we would expect this to add an additional ~30% to valuations across the sector.”

Ultimately, Citi suggests that Western Europe’s slow action reflects a tension between addressing long-term security risks posed by Russia and the immediate fiscal discipline demanded by bond markets. 

As Citi puts it, “Given the current fiscal constraints…we would not expect to hear significant near-term increases in defense spending.”