Why is the crypto market up today?

The cryptocurrency market rebounded after a sell-off that drove its overall valuation to the lowest since November 2024.

As of Feb. 26, the market capitalization of all crypto assets had reached $2.87 trillion after rising 3.30% from its local low. Top coins Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) led the intraday rally with 0.69% and 1.40% gains, respectively.

Top catalysts driving the crypto market rebound today include:

Crypto rises ahead of Nvidia earnings

The crypto market’s recovery today aligns closely with similar rebounds in the US stock market, just ahead of the much-awaited Nvidia earnings report.

What to know:

• Nvidia’s earnings have become a macro-level event for risk assets, given its leadership in AI and its influence on broader market sentiment.

• A strong Nvidia report could reaffirm the AI investment boom, boosting confidence in high-growth sectors—including crypto.

• The stock market had been on a five-week losing streak, with tech stocks nearing correction territory.

• The stock market’s relief rally today is lifting crypto as well due to their prevailing positive correlation.

• The daily positive correlation coefficient between the crypto market capitalization and the Nasdaq Composite was 0.77 as of Feb. 26.

• Cryptocurrencies associated with Big Data and the AI sector have witnessed massive increases in their prices ahead of the Nvidia report, contributing to the crypto market’s overall recovery on Feb. 26.

• If Nvidia beats earnings expectations, stocks and crypto could extend gains, driven by renewed risk appetite and liquidity flows.

Global M2 supply boosts crypto market’s bullish scenario

The cryptocurrency market’s rise today further coincides with expanding M2 global money supply.

Key takeaways:

• The year-on-year fixed exchange rate for the M2 money supply of the four major central banks reached 3.65% in January, increasing market liquidity.

• Economist Lyn Alden noted that Bitcoin moves in the same direction as global M2 83% of the time.

• Bitcoin dominates over 60% of the total crypto market capitalization, indicating that its growth, driven by the expanding M2 money supply, could ultimately uplift the entire industry.

Related: Bitcoin price ‘top is not in’ as Wyckoff model hints at $100K retest

• Furthermore, Swyftx analyst Pav Hundal highlighted that spot buyers are active, and the US raised its debt ceiling by $4 trillion, reinforcing liquidity inflows.

Crypto market chart: technical rebound

From a technical perspective, the crypto market’s bounce today has occurred primarily due to its oversold relative strength index (RSI).

Key points:

• The RSI on the 4-hour timeframe dipped below 30, entering the oversold territory.

• A slight rebound in RSI suggests buyers are stepping in to absorb selling pressure.

Furthermore, the crypto market is eyeing extended recovery as it paints what appears to be a double-bottom pattern.

Note that:

• The total crypto market cap chart shows two consecutive lows around $2.78 trillion, forming a double bottom pattern.

• A double-bottom is considered a bullish reversal structure, resolving when the price breaks above its neckline resistance and rises by as much as the pattern’s maximum height.

• Confirmation of this pattern would require a breakout above the neckline (~$2.91 trillion).

• If the breakout occurs, the measured move target suggests a rally toward $3.02 trillion.

• The target aligns with the crypto market’s 50-4H exponential moving average (50-4H EMA; the red wave) at around $3.03 trillion.

• A breakout failure may result in continued consolidation between $2.78 trillion and $2.90 trillion.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.