“South Texas is the battleground region of Texas. It’ll be competitive for sure… [Democrats] are going to have to work for a win,” said Ed Espinoza, executive director of liberal group Progress Texas. “The campaign won’t end on May 24. It’s just the end of a chapter, but it’s not the end of the story.”
Cuellar or Cisneros will have to face off with Cassy Garcia, a former aide to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) who won her own runoff election Tuesday night. Garcia has been racking up endorsements from Republican leaders and groups, including from her former boss and House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik’s Elevate PAC.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, has already spent $100,000 on digital ads on Garcia’s behalf.
“I think we’re going to have a great shot — either against Cuellar or Jessica Cisneros — to flip this seat,” Garcia told POLITICO. “Our seats down here in South Texas have been Democratic-controlled for over 100 years. For the first time to have the opportunity to flip these seats… The national party is so excited.”
National Republican groups have eyed the three South Texas seats as inviting midterm election targets after Trump’s surprising gains there in the 2020 presidential election. Cuellar’s 28th District, as well as the two neighboring ones, were included in the National Republican Congressional Committee’s first target list for 2022 back in February of last year. And the Republican National Committee has already been making investments in the border region, opening community centers in Hispanic-heavy areas of Texas, including Laredo and San Antonio.
For months, GOP leaders and groups have also been lining up behind the trio of Latinas running in the Rio Grande Valley area seats.
Mayra Flores will have a shot to flip a Brownsville-area seat next month in a special election following former Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela’s resignation to become a lobbyist. In November, she’ll be on the ballot again against Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in a district reconfigured by redistricting.
De La Cruz, a Trump-endorsed candidate, is running again in Texas’ 15th District after coming close to winning in 2020. Of the South Texas Republican candidates, she’s thought to have the best chance of winning, given the makeup of the district after redistricting.
Espinoza said that it’s clear Democrats are going to have to spend big money across South Texas this year to protect their seats. The competitiveness of Texas’ 28th Congressional District — which runs from the U.S.-Mexico border up toward San Antonio — should serve as a wakeup call, he said, a warning that the party needs to actively engage Latino voters, even if South Texas has long been a Democratic stronghold.
“Democrats need to stop looking at the Latino community like we are a base vote. We are a base vote and a swing vote and we have to treat it like that,” Espinoza said. “You wouldn’t show up to a swing state three weeks before an election. Well, you shouldn’t show up to a swing district three weeks before an election either.”
Garcia said she, Flores and De La Cruz have already talked about the possibility of joint rallies to drum up excitement in the lead-up to the election.
All three of the GOP women have run on a similar platform: a push for more border security, frequently criticizing the Biden administration and Democrats for not doing enough to secure the border. They promise to support Border Patrol agents and law enforcement officers, contending they’ve been unfairly villainized by Democrats. All three are staunchly anti-abortion.
Garcia feels confident about her odds no matter which Democrat emerges as the nominee in the 28th District.
“If it is Henry Cuellar, the Democrats are doing a horrible job to secure our southern border,” Garcia said, pointing out how the National Border Patrol Council endorsed her this time after long backing Cuellar. “People are tired. Cuellar has been here since 2005 and people ask: ‘What has he done for District 28?’”
Garcia praises Cisneros for having a “good ground game,” but argued South Texas Democrats are conservative by nature and won’t back a candidate endorsed by progressives like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-N.Y.).
Still, Democrats continue to have an advantage in the region. President Joe Biden won a majority of the vote in South Texas in 2020 and far more Democrats than Republicans voted in the March primary. But with 2022 shaping up to be a rough election year for Democrats, party strategists, pollsters and leaders acknowledge the need to work harder than ever to keep South Texas blue.
“You can’t take Texas 28th for granted,” said Chuck Rocha, a long-time Democratic strategist. “If things continue to go as bad as they’re going for Democrats, we may end up fighting in all of the seats that are single-digit Democratic majorities.
Rocha said much will depend on how aggressively Democrats work to court the majority-Latino voters of South Texas in the runup to the election.
“Cuellar can lose this race [in November] as easily as Cisneros,” Rocha said. “If it continues to be a one-sided conversation where the only messaging is coming from Republicans, then they’ll continue to make inroads, making [this seat] even more competitive.”
