We’ve broken down our statistical modeling strategy for the 2022 Scottish Open and now we’re onto the picks!
We begin as always with our derivative selections for the event. This week, I’ve focused in on three PGA Tour players who present good value based on both my statistical model and their overall course history.
So, without further delay, here are my three best derivative bets at The Renaissance Club. All odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
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Best Bet #1 – Will Zalatoris Top-20 Finish (+145)
The worry is always the same with Zalatoris — will his putter be average enough to contend — but his statistical profile appears to fit this course well.
Given the Renaissance Club features wide fairways that are easy to hit, Zalatoris won’t have to worry as much about foul balls off the tee. Plus, he’s 11th in the field in driving distance, which should give him advantage on the long holes.
Those wide fairways will also emphasize Zalatoris’s strength: approach play. He’s 13th in the field in SG: approach over his last 12 rounds and sits 10th in the field in GIRs gained. Expand the sample size to his previous 24 rounds and prospective bettors will find Zalatoris is ninth and fourth, respectively, in those two categories.
Additionally, Zalatoris rates out very well in his ability to score at a quick rate — over his last 12 rounds, Zalatoris ranks eighth in the field in birdies or better gained. Plus, he’s well above-average in three-putt avoidance (15th) and has putted well from five to 10 feet of late (22nd in the field).
Lastly, the Wake Forest product has decent course history at the Renaissance Club. In his first appearance at this event last season, Zalatoris finished in a tie for 26th while firing all four rounds under par. For those reasons, I’d play this market at +125 or better.
Best Bet #2 – Sam Burns Top-20 Finish (+160)
Not only did Burns posted a T-18th at last year’s Scottish Open, but his modeling output is quite strong.
Burns rates out third or better in all of the following models: eight-round (third), 12-round (first), 24-round (first) and 50-round (second). Just in terms of the 12-round projection, Burns ranks 20th or better in all but two individual measures.
Most impressively, Burns ranks fourth in the field in SG: Approach, ninth in birdies or better gained and fifth in SG: Par 5’s. He’s also eighth in GIRs gained and second in the field in SG: Par 4’s – 450 to 500 yards.
Further, Burns is one of only two players in the field that ranks 20th or better in both putting metrics. Over his last 24 rounds, he’s 16th in the field in putting between five and 10 feet and 11th in the field between 10 and 15 feet.
Lastly, Burns arrives in Scotland on a strong run in terms of top-20 results. Across his last 10 events, the LSU product has finished 20th or better in five and 27th or better in seven. For those reasons, take Burns top-20 at +140 or better.
Best Bet #3 – Max Homa Top-40 Finish (+100)
Unfortunately, Homa has no course history to draw from at The Renaissance Club, but he models out well enough that I’m willing to back him blindly.
Across his last 24 qualifying rounds, Homa ranks fourth overall in the field. Over his last 12 rounds, he’s fifth in the field. Just in terms of the latter projection, Homa ranks ninth in the field in SG: Approach, 10th in birdies or better gained and 13th in SG: Par 5’s.
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Furthermore, Homa ranks 13th in the field in SG: Par 4’s – 450 to 500 yards and sits 20th in driving distance.
Plus, when Homa is presented with tracks featuring easy to hit fairways, he rates out very well. He’s 12th in the field in SG: Total, eighth in SG: Ball Striking and 13th in SG: Putting. The latter stat helps quell some concern with the fact Homa is 118th in the field in putting from 10 to 15 feet (side-note: he’s 13th between five and 10 feet).
Lastly, I almost can’t believe bettors can get Homa in plus-money for this market as he’s continued to produce strong results this season. Dating back to the Phoenix Open, Homa has played 10 events and finished 40th or better in eight. On the two occasions where he failed to do so, he finished 47th and 48th.
Thus, even though this is a new course for the UC-Berkeley product, back Homa to finish inside the top-40 at -110 or better.