Up 2-1 in the best of four, the Yankees are looking to further widen their already massive lead in the American League East.
The Red Sox were able to avoid disaster on Saturday thanks to an Alex Verdugo walk-off hit in the bottom of the 10th inning. The Sox have a chance to split the four-game set in primetime on Sunday night with a win.
To do it, they will need a sparkling performance from former Phillies starter Nick Pivetta. Pivetta was hit hard by Tampa Bay last time out, so he will need to show improvement to tame the Yankees tonight.
Yankees vs. Red Sox odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: NYY -1.5 (+120) vs. BOS +1.5 (-145)
Moneyline: NYY (-135) vs. (+110)
Total: Over 9 (-115) | Under 9 (-105)
Yankees vs. Red Sox probable pitchers today
Taillon (9-3, 3.63) vs. Pivetta (8-6, 3.68)
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Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction
Let’s start off with Rafael Devers, who we know will not play tonight before the lineups even come out. A big loss for the Sox who are missing their best hitter tonight.
The Yankees send to the bump Jameson Taillon who, like Pivettta, also struggled last time out. Taillon was beaten up by his former team, the Pittsburgh Pirates, to the tune of five earned runs allowed and a loss on the record.
Diving into the past matchups between the hitters and pitchers, Taillon has had a steady amount of success against the Red Sox hitters. Slugger JD Martinez is 2-for-6 in his career against Taillon, while Verdugo is 2-for-9, Story is just 1-for-6, and Bogaerts just 3-for-12.
Those are pretty brutal numbers from some of the most productive hitters in the Red Sox lineup. Taillon’s peripheral stats are about on par with his current numbers and his fastball and curveball spin rates are listed as “great” on BaseballSavant, each in the 82nd percentile in all of baseball.
Taillon’s strikeout total is set for just 4.5 at -110 on PointsBet. He is over this total in four of his last five games, so this is play number one.
On the opposite end, Giancarlo Stanton has dominant numbers against Pivetta. The rest of the Yankee roster is about average, with no one dominating and few struggling besides Gleyber Torres who is 0-for-5 against Pivetta.
In an article on Thursday, we broke down Stanton’s dominant numbers in his career at Fenway Park. Naturally, he has been 0-for-8 since that article. Stanton has struggled a bit recently so he could be in a funk. Still, he could be a spot to target for home run props tonight (best line +300 on BetRivers at time of writing) with his .375 average in 16 at-bats and two home runs already against Pivetta.
Want to bet on the MLB?
For now, the best bet to target for tonight’s game is the over, which comes in at nine (-115). If the market came down to 8.5, this is much more preferable, but bettors are clearly smashing that line, juiced to -115.
Still, the line is worth a wager up to -120 before it’s a pass.
Yankees vs. Red Sox picks
- Over 9 total runs (-115) BetMGM
- Jameson Taillon ‘over’ 4.5 strikeouts -110 (PointsBet)