Earthquake experts ramp up chances of huge California disaster as worrying new calculations drops

A major earthquake disaster is more than likely on its way for Californians in the coming years, according to seismologists — and the odds are increasing.

Federal scientists estimate a 74.1% chance of Bay Area residents experiencing a magnitude 6.7 or stronger over the next 30 years.

The new probability is a 2.1% bump from a decade ago. No major ruptures have occurred since then, building tension in the state’s faults, scientists said.

Scientists say the general public should get ready.

“Things seem to be pretty locked and loaded,” Ned Field, a seismologist with the US Geological Survey, told the SF Chronicle. “We’d be wise to be ready.”

The San Andreas Fault also saw an increase of 3.6% from the 2016 forecast, placing the probability of a rupture at 25.5% in the next 30 years.

Bay Area fault system Hayward-Rodgers Creek has a 34.3% probability of rupturing, a minor 1.2% bump from the last forecast.

The 2016 and 2026 figures were calculated based on the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, a California model that estimates where earthquakes of different sizes could occur and their likelihoods.

Scientists are also very concerned about the level of tectonic-plate loading in SoCal along the San Andreas and San Jacinto fault systems, which have reached their highest levels of tectonic stress in 1,000 years.

A major earthquake of magnitude 6.7 struck the Los Angeles area in the 1994 Northridge disaster, causing dozens of deaths and injuring thousands. It collapsed structures, buckled houses and caused billions of dollars in damage.

Another major quake could be just as devastating. Scientists have named Cajon Pass as an area of concern.

They named it a potential “earthquake gate,” meaning it could either prevent a large rupture from spreading between the two faults or allow a rupture to tear through both systems and produce a much larger earthquake, according to National Geographic.

“We all know the San Andreas fault is loaded. It’s ready to go. For years the scientific community has been saying so,” Ken Hudnut, who helped the US Geological Survey develop seismic resiliency initiatives for California, told National Geographic.

“Cajon Pass keeps me up at night,” he added.

A potential earthquake there could cause landslides that could bring down transmission towers and bury other critical lines, while an estimated 75,000 cubic meters of debris could block roads through the pass.

Losing access through Cajon Pass could significantly disrupt transportation, supply chains, communications and power systems, officials said.

A major earthquake is viewed as a ticking time bomb for California — an inevitable disaster.

“This earthquake’s inevitable. We just don’t know exactly when,” former USGS seismologist Lucy Jones told National Geographic.

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