From falsely linking Estonia’s president Alar Karis to Jeffrey Epstein to a disinformation campaign about a Ukrainian soldier killing three NATO servicemen — Kremlin-linked false information campaigns that circulated ahead of and during elections in Latvia and Estonia were aimed at creating mistrust and confusion among the voters, according to a London-based threat intelligence company Refute report published on Tuesday.
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“Russia is deploying disinformation as a deliberate instrument designed to disorient citizens, shape public debate and deepen divisions ahead of elections,” said Tom Garnett, Co-founder and CEO of Refute.
Campaigns around Estonia’s September presidential election and Latvia’s October parliamentary vote exploited genuine concerns around Russia’s war in Ukraine, NATO, drones and border security, attaching fabricated claims to real events and debates to undermine confidence in institutions, Ukraine, NATO and the wider security environment.
The false narratives were used not only in Latvia and Estonia but also spread across global audiences, “seeking to undermine perceptions of Baltic security abroad,” according to the report.
The campaigns also showed how false narratives were repeatedly rebuilt for different audiences and platforms rather than simply reposted. Refute identified eight versions of one video, including edits tailored to Arabic- and Spanish-speaking audiences and versions incorporating AI-generated footage.
Other claims were given added credibility by being tied to genuine events, such as previous incidents involving drones entering Baltic airspace, while being presented in a misleading context.
Some of the narratives were subsequently published on websites in multiple languages, giving them a more durable form that could be cited and recirculated even after social media posts were labelled or removed, according to Refute.
From fake NATO deaths to Epstein files
In Latvia, a fabricated video styled as a Euronews report claimed that a Ukrainian soldier had killed three NATO servicemen during the Baltic Trust 26 military exercise before taking his own life ahead of the 3 October 2026 vote.
The claim circulated between August 14 and September 6, with dozens of accounts reaching a combined audience of more than 1.85 million, according to the report. The fabricated claim was also anchored to the timing of a military exercise, creating the impression that the exercise had been halted over the alleged deaths when it was in fact due to end as scheduled.
Latvia’s National Armed Forces quickly denounced it as a coordinated disinformation campaign but the denial did not stop the story from spreading. It was translated into multiple languages, repackaged by influencers and subsequently discussed in pro-Russian information ecosystems as though the alleged incident had actually happened. Euronews confirmed it had neither produced nor published the footage.
In Estonia, in the meantime, one fake news site published a fabricated story linking outgoing President Alar Karis and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda to Jeffrey Epstein’s trafficking network. The site, euobserver.news, was designed to resemble the legitimate Brussels-based outlet EUobserver, copying genuine articles and journalists’ biographies.
The aim is to ‘erode trust’
The fabricated story was also promoted through an AI-narrated video and more than a dozen social media accounts with a combined following of around 780,000, according to Refute.
A separate fake website imitating US defence publication The Defense Post claimed that a Ukrainian drone had entered Estonian airspace and damaged two Portuguese F-16s near Ämari Air Base at a cost of approximately €120 million.
The claim built on genuine incidents involving drones entering Baltic airspace, diverted by Russian electronic warfare, but falsely suggested that Ukrainian activity had caused significant damage on Estonian soil.
The aim — “to erode trust in Ukraine, question Estonian and wider European support for Kyiv, and cast doubt on Estonia’s air defences,” according to the report. The story circulated in at least seven languages and tapped into an ongoing debate over Estonia’s air defences and support for Kyiv.
“The campaigns that Refute found reflect repeated tactics that represent a step change in how Russia is systemically targeting the information ecosystems in the Baltics and beyond,” said Vlad Galu, Co-founder and CTO of Refute.
The Baltic states, as NATO and EU members and strong supporters of Ukraine, are particularly exposed to Russian-linked disinformation.
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