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TEL AVIV, Israel — Israelis turned out in exceptionally high numbers Tuesday for the country’s first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas massacre, with initial exit polls showing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud emerging as the largest party but his governing coalition falling short of a parliamentary majority, potentially opening the door to a change in leadership.
The projections released by Israel’s three major television networks after polls closed at 10 p.m. local time (4 p.m. ET) showed Likud winning 25 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, compared with 23 seats for former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party in Channels 12 and 13 exit polls, and 21 seats according to Kan 11.
The projected parliamentary balance showed 50 seats for Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc, 53 for the main opposition parties and 17 for Arab parties, leaving neither major bloc with the 61 seats generally needed to form a government.
Although Netanyahu’s party is projected to remain the largest in parliament, his political future is far from secure. The opposition parties, together with the Arab factions, would hold a combined 70 seats, although that does not mean they would necessarily agree to form a government together.
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The results set the stage for potentially weeks of coalition negotiations, with the possibility that Netanyahu could lose power despite Likud finishing first.
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The results are preliminary projections, not an official vote count, and could change as ballots are tallied in the coming days.
The election followed an extraordinary day at polling stations across Israel, with long lines and voter participation reaching levels not seen in decades.
Israeli voter turnout surged to a historic high, with 55.7% of eligible voters casting their ballots by 4 p.m. local time (10 a.m. ET), according to Israel’s Central Elections Committee. The figure marked the highest turnout recorded at that hour since measurements began in 1973, underscoring the intensity of the country’s national election.
The unusually high participation prompted election officials to streamline voting procedures and assure voters that anyone arriving at a polling station before the 10 p.m. deadline would be allowed to cast a ballot.
The vote was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership following three years of war and continuing questions about responsibility for the security failures that allowed Hamas terrorists to kill approximately 1,200 people and abduct 251 others on Oct. 7, 2023.
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Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, campaigned on his record of confronting Iran and its regional proxies, highlighting Israel’s military achievements and his relationship with President Donald Trump. His opponents accused him of failing to accept responsibility for the October 7 security failures and opposed his government’s approach to investigating the failures that preceded the massacre.
A last-minute battle for every vote
Throughout the final hours of the campaign, Netanyahu, Eisenkot, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and other party leaders mounted an intensive effort to mobilize supporters and win over undecided voters.
Netanyahu’s Likud party prepared hundreds of targeted campaign videos and social media messages, making digital outreach a central part of its last-minute election strategy.
Eisenkot’s campaign pushed supporters to rally behind Yashar as the leading alternative to Likud, while Bennett traveled between cities and engaged voters directly and through WhatsApp conversations.
The key question now is which candidate can secure the support of at least 61 lawmakers when President Isaac Herzog consults with the newly elected parliamentary factions. If Eisenkot can obtain those recommendations, including from Arab parties, he would have a strong claim to receive the first opportunity to form a government, even though Netanyahu’s Likud is projected to remain the largest individual party. Crucially, Arab parties could recommend Eisenkot without formally joining his governing coalition. However, the final decision rests with Herzog, who is tasked with selecting the lawmaker he believes has the best chance of forming a government. Securing the first mandate would not guarantee Eisenkot could assemble a governing majority, leaving the possibility of another political deadlock.
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The campaign’s closing hours also featured personal appeals, phone calls to undecided voters and aggressive turnout operations across the political spectrum.
The final days were particularly important because a relatively small share of voters remained undecided about which party to support.
A Times of Israel poll published five days before the election found that 87% of respondents had already made their final choice, while 2.4% remained undecided between the pro and anti-Netanyahu political blocs.
Other surveys suggested a larger pool of undecided voters, although many were choosing between parties within the same political camp rather than switching sides.
That distinction could prove decisive in Israel’s parliamentary system, where political parties need at least 3.25% of valid votes to enter the 120-seat Knesset.
Even a slight change in the vote share of smaller parties could shift several parliamentary seats and determine whether either camp has a realistic path to power.
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What happens next?
Despite the exit poll projections, the identity of Israel’s next prime minister may remain uncertain for weeks.
Unlike in the United States, Israelis vote for political parties rather than directly electing their head of government.
The 120 seats in parliament are allocated proportionally, and parties must secure at least 3.25% of valid votes to win representation.
Once the final results are certified, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult with the newly elected political factions and select the lawmaker he believes has the strongest chance of forming a government.
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That candidate will have 28 days to negotiate a governing coalition, with the possibility of a 14-day extension.
Official results are scheduled to be published by Nov. 4. Until a new government takes office, Netanyahu’s outgoing government will remain in power.
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