Prediction markets signal government shutdown may last into mid-November

Traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are betting that the federal government shutdown will last about six weeks, as partisan gridlock shows little sign of easing.

While odds on these markets don’t serve as formal forecasts, they do provide a real-time snapshot of trader expectations.

According to Kalshi’s market data, traders on average expect the shutdown to continue for roughly 44 days.

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Traders are pricing in a 44% probability that the shutdown lasts until Nov. 15, and about a one-in-three chance it continues past Nov. 20.

The trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, is a little more than $12.7 million.

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Meanwhile, traders on Polymarket are betting the government shutdown will end around mid-November. 

The largest share of traders, about 44%, expect it to conclude after Nov. 16, with a little over $147,000 wagered on that outcome.

The federal government shut down at 12:01 a.m. ET on Oct. 7. 

Since 1976, the U.S. government has experienced 20 shutdowns. The longest government shutdown, lasting 34 days – from December 2018 to January 2019 – stemmed from a clash over funding for President Donald Trump‘s border wall.

Senators on Thursday failed for the 10th time to break the impasse, leaving the government shutdown unresolved. 

Meanwhile, the House has been adjourned since Sept. 19 and is not expected to reconvene until the shutdown ends.