The nine key races that will decide who controls the Senate, and where they stand

Democrats have expanded their once-narrow path to reclaiming the Senate majority with just over two weeks until Election Day, but they’ll need to win several competitive races to take control of the chamber.

If Democrats ride a massive blue wave in the midterm elections, they could end up with 52 or even 53 seats in the next Senate. But if Republicans out-perform the polls, they could hold their majority, which currently stands at 53-47.

Here’s a look at the current battlefield and both parties’ routes to securing a Senate majority in the midterms.

The latest Power Rankings point to Democrats and Republicans each taking 47 seats in the midterms, leaving six races rated as true toss-ups. Additionally, three races are rated as leaners — one step shy of a toss-up. These nine showdowns will likely determine whether the Democrats make a net gain of four seats to win control of the Senate or if the GOP holds the majority.

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“Nine races will determine control of the Senate, and on the polling alone, you could call any of them toss-ups,” said Remy Numa, a Fox News contributor who steers the network’s Power Rankings.

The GOP is fighting political history, as the party in power in Washington has traditionally lost seats during midterm election years. Republicans also face a challenging political climate fueled by persistent inflation Americans see at the grocery store, high gas prices tied to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran and President Donald Trump’s increasingly negative approval ratings.

With Republicans controlling the seats in six of the nine competitive races in the Power Rankings, the GOP is playing more defense than the Democrats.

The six toss-up states are Alaska, where Sen. Dan Sullivan is seeking re-election against Democratic challenger and former Rep. Mary Peltola; Iowa, where Rep. Ashley Hinson is trying to keep retiring Sen. Joni Ernst’s seat in GOP hands against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek; and Maine, where longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins is running for re-election against former state Senate President Troy Jackson, the Democratic challenger.

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Also on the list is Ohio, where appointed GOP Sen. Jon Husted is running to serve the final two years of the term won in 2022 by now-Vice President JD Vance. He’s facing former longtime Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. And in Texas, state Attorney General Ken Paxton is battling Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the race to succeed longtime GOP Sen. John Cornyn, who was ousted by Paxton in a bitter Republican primary.

Democrats are playing defense in Michigan, the sixth toss-up, where nominee Abdul El-Sayed is trying to keep party control of retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’ seat, as he faces former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers.

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Democrats are also on defense in New Hampshire, where Rep. Chris Pappas is aiming to keep retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s seat blue against former GOP Sen. John E. Sununu. The Power Rankings rate the race “Lean Democrat.”

It’s a similar story in Minnesota, where Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is trying to keep retiring Sen. Tina Smith’s seat in party hands.

But the Power Rankings this past week shifted the race in the blue-leaning state toward the GOP, from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat, as Republican nominee Michele Tafoya appears to gain traction.

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Meanwhile, the GOP is on defense in red-leaning Kansas, where Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces a difficult re-election fight against Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a pastor. The Power Rankings rate the race Lean Republican.

Numa, pointing to Kansas, Minnesota and New Hampshire, said that “the voter profiles and histories of those states are keeping them at ‘Lean D’ and ‘Lean R’ on the forecast, but this map has expanded, and with the exception of the North Star State, mostly into red territory.”

Meanwhile, two states are now pretty much off the table for the GOP.

Georgia was a top Republican target when the 2026 cycle began, but Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff holds a solid lead over GOP challenger Rep. Mike Collins in the southeastern battleground. Republican outside groups have cut their spending significantly in Georgia, and the Fox News Power Rankings rate the race as Likely Democrat.

In neighboring North Carolina, Republicans appear to have conceded the seat held by retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis. Republican groups have pulled the plug on spending on behalf of GOP nominee Mike Whatley, who trails former Gov. Roy Cooper, the Democratic nominee, in polling. The Fox News Power Rankings also rate this race as Likely Democrat.

The Democrats win the majority if they run the table by holding Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire, and flip North Carolina as well as at least three of the five GOP-controlled toss-up states.

“Senate Democrats are in the strongest position yet to win the majority – with multiple paths to flip GOP-held seats and growing momentum across the map,” Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair, touted in a recent statement.

Conversely, Republicans would keep control of the chamber by holding at least three of the toss-ups where they’re playing defense. A 50-50 Senate would remain in GOP hands, thanks to the tie-breaking vote of Vice President JD Vance.

Gillibrand’s counterpart, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, remains optimistic.

“I think it’s going very well for us,” Scott said Thursday in an interview on Fox News “America Reports.” “The momentum, frankly, is with us, not against us.”

The GOP majority could be bolstered if the party goes on offense. While chances of Sununu flipping New Hampshire appear to be receding, Republicans are optimistic Rogers can top El-Sayed in Michigan. Trump is expected to hold a rally with Rogers in the Great Lakes battleground later this month.

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Meanwhile, Scott has his eyes on a flip in Minnesota.

“Michele Tafoya is running a very independent campaign, lots of traction,” he told Fox News. “I think we close that gap. And if there’s an October surprise, Minnesota goes Republican.”