XRP Fails to Break Downtrend But Bullish Plan Remains Valid

Key takeaways:

XRP failed to hold $3.12 and faces immediate resistance at $3.30.
Onchain data shows strong accumulation between $2.70 to $3.00.
Chart fractals suggest a potential 60%–85% rally into Q4 remains valid.

XRP (XRP) posted an 18% rally in the first half of September, climbing to $3.18 from $2.70. However, the token failed to breach the $3.20 mark, rejecting at the four-hour fair value gap on the sell side and slipping back to retest the $3 support.

Following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut on Wednesday, XRP was unable to register a higher high above $3.18, extending short-term weakness, lining up another $3 retest. The altcoin is also struggling to maintain its footing above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), adding further selling pressure to near-term momentum.

XRP six-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Futures trader DOM highlighted the bulls’ inability to hold the $3.12 level earlier this week, which he identified as a key area for continuation toward $3.30. The trader said:

“Bulls failed to hold $3.12 area earlier in the week, which I stated would be the challenge for a push to $3.30. That idea remains, with all eyes on that level being flipped to support (battling now). No substantial passive resistance in the order books until that ~$3.30 target area.”

This leaves $3.30 as the immediate resistance, with bulls needing to reclaim $3.18 for any meaningful continuation higher.

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Why XRP’s bullish plan remains intact

Despite short-term setbacks, broader market signals point to sustained bullish momentum for XRP. Onchain data shows the Net Holder position change has been strongly positive since Aug. 22.

This shift followed a stretch of red between July and early August, coinciding with profit-taking at higher levels. Accumulation has been most evident in the $2.70–$3 range, indicating that investors are positioning for upside rather than exiting the market.

Cryptocurrencies, XRP, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Binance, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, ETF — *XRP Holder Net Position Change. Source: Glassnode*

Similarly, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio underscored a transition phase. July saw the heaviest profit-taking of the cycle, triggering the subsequent decline. Since then, the ratio has flattened but rose sharply recently, its strongest increase since November 2024.

This suggests much of the earlier selling pressure has been absorbed, with new cohorts of investors likely entering the market. Together with the net holders’ accumulation, these indicators reflect a constructive long-term backdrop.

XRP’s repeating market fractal remains another bullish anchor. The Q1 structure was aligned with the current Q3 setup, with the $2.70 low coinciding with the Fibonacci golden pocket (0.5–0.618).

This fractal implied that XRP is following its expected cycle pattern, setting the stage for a potential 60–85% rally in Q4. Based on this projection, XRP could reach the $5.00-$5.50 range from its current level of $3.